Matt Harvey (7-5, 3.18 ERA) and Michael Lorenzen (3-2, 3.56 ERA) start in the second of a three-game series between the New York Mets (38-37) and the Cincinnati Reds (34-38) at Citi Field. The Mets won the last game 2-1 and New York leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 27 and can be seen on FSN-OH and PIX11.
Harvey pitched 6.2 innings in his most recent start, surrendering one run, striking out five and walking one in a 1-0 defeat to the Braves. Curtis Granderson (.250, 41 Rs, 12 HRs, 24 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, one RBI, and one stolen base. Lorenzen went 7.0 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out five and walking one in a 5-2 win over the Marlins in his last outing. Todd Frazier (.293, 53 Rs, 24 HRs, 52 RBIs, 8 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
New York is a -171 favorite against Cincinnati and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at seven runs. Though the Mets have had a tough season in terms of their overall money line (-263), they have done fairly well as a favorite with a record of 31-12. The Mets have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 1.8 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.6 runs per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, the Mets are the fifth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.20 so far this season.
Over in the other dugout, Cincinnati is coming in with an overall money line of -312 and a disappointing record of 14-26 as the underdog. The Reds can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking fifth in the league with 86 home runs. The Reds are an excellent base-stealing team with an MLB-best 75 stolen bases. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Reds are fourth in the NL with an average of 8.3 hits allowed per game.
The Mets have the edge in the season series, 1-0. The Mets have a 31-31 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Lorenzen takes the mound. Harvey (RHP) will be on the hill against the Reds, who have a 25-27 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
Cincinnati has won 43% (13-17) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 53% (17-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Mets are coming into this game after allowing zero walks during their last outing. The Reds have a 1-5 record when opponents give up that many walks.
When they are outhit, the Reds are 6-26. The Mets have an 11-30 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 17th in home runs, New York has hit 64 this season. Cincinnati ranks fifth with 86 home runs.
Ranking 15th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 7.78 per game. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.54.
Ranking 28th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.663). Cincinnati ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .720.
When the Reds allow at least one home run, they are 15-30, well-matched with the Mets who are 15-25 when allowing at least one homer.
