Brett Oberholtzer (2-1, 2.81 ERA) and the Houston Astros (43-33) square off against Masahiro Tanaka (4-3, 3.17 ERA) and the New York Yankees (40-34) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the third of a four-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Yankees won the last game 3-2 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jun. 27 and can be seen on YES and ROOT-SW.
Oberholtzer is 0-2 with a 4.96 ERA in his appearances against the Yankees, and goes up against a good New York offense which is batting .259 this season. Jose Altuve (.291, 34 Rs, 5 HRs, 29 RBIs, 21 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run and one stolen base. Tanaka went 5.0 innings, surrendering five runs (two unearned), striking out six and walking two in a 12-4 defeat to the Tigers in his most recent start. Brett Gardner (.294, 55 Rs, 9 HRs, 38 RBIs, 15 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Yankees, going 2 for 5 yesterday.
New York takes on Houston as a -135 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Astros have recorded an overall money line of +892 and have shown high-level performance as an underdog this season with a record of 23-15. Houston has gone 3-1 in its last 10 as underdog. The Astros have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.6 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.5 runs per game. The Astros have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the AL in offense with 4.5 runs per game. The Astros are one of the best in the MLB in terms of extra base hits with 246. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 61 bases. As for the pitchers, the Astros are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season.
In games where it is the favorite, New York has a 23-17 record and an overall money line of -230. Offensively, the Yankees have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.8 runs per game by averaging 6.2 during that stretch. The Yankees can change the game with one swing of the bat, ranking second in the league with 99 home runs. The Yankees allow 4.5 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 6.2 runs per game during that span. The Yankees have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an AL-best 8.4 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Astros have a great 15-6 record at home (27-16 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Tanaka takes the mound. Oberholtzer (LHP) will be on the hill against the Yankees, who have a 10-8 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
New York has won 48% (19-21) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 57% (17-13) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Astros are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded four strikeouts. The Yankees have a record of 6-2 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Yankees are 6-26. The Astros have a 9-23 record when opponents outhit them.
Houston ranks at the top of the league when it comes to home runs with 107 this season. New York ranks in the top five at second with 99.
Ranking 13th, Houston is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.08 per game. New York ranks in the top five at fifth with 9.00.
Ranking 10th, Houston is in the top 10 of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.730). New York ranks in the top five at third with an OPS of .759.
When the Yankees allow at least one home run, they are 19-27. When the Astros allow one or more homers, they have a 15-23 record.
