Sean O Sullivan (1-5, 5.34 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (27-50) meet Jimmy Nelson (4-8, 4.34 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (29-48) in the first of a four-game series at Citizens Bank Park. The game starts at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Jun. 29 and will air on FSN-WI and CSN-PHI.
In his most recent outing, O Sullivan pitched 4.1 innings, allowing six runs and striking out two in an 11-6 loss to the Yankees. Maikel Franco (.304, 25 Rs, 10 HRs, 32 RBIs, 1 SB) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 5 with one run and three RBIs. The Brewers were victorious over the Mets 4-1 the last time Nelson pitched. He went 8.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out five and walking one. Ryan Braun (.259, 42 Rs, 15 HRs, 49 RBIs, 9 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one run, one home run, two RBIs, and one stolen base.
Philadelphia, a +125 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Milwaukee. The matchup currently has an eight-run Over/Under (O/U). The Phillies have a losing record of 24-45 when playing as the underdog and an overall money line of -1,444. Philadelphia has averaged 5.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 3.3. Below average play has been the norm lately for the Philadelphia pitchers. The Phillies have given up an average of 6.2 runs to opponents in their last 10 games, above their season average of 4.9 runs per game.
Moving on to the opposing team, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of 10-17 when playing as the favorite (.370) and an overall money line of -1,788. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 5-5 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 4-1 record. The Brewers are one of the top NL pitching staffs on the road, essentially shutting down opponents to the tune of four runs allowed per away game.
This game will feature Nelson (RHP) on the mound against the Phillies, who have a 22-40 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Brewers will be the right-hander O Sullivan. Right-handed starters have been a big issue for them as they sport a 20-40 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – MIL, O/U – Over
Notes
When the Brewers play into extra innings, they have a 2-2 record. The Phillies are 2-4 when their games exceed nine innings.
After a weak showing last week where they got in eight hits, the Brewers need to step it up. The Phillies have a record of 15-12 when opponents get eight hits or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 17-7. The Brewers have a 22-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Philadelphia and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. Philadelphia sits at 29th with 256 runs this season and Milwaukee ranks 24th with 283.
Philadelphia and Milwaukee both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Philadelphia sits at 29th with 169 this season and Milwaukee ranks 27th with 172.
When the Phillies hit at least one home run, they are 16-20. When the Brewers hit at least one homer, they have a 24-16 record.
