Marco Estrada (5-3, 3.45 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (41-37) meet Eduardo Rodriguez (3-2, 4.33 ERA) and the Boston Red Sox (35-43) in the second of a four-game division series at the Rogers Centre. The Red Sox won the last game 3-1 and Boston leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:07 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Jun. 30 and will air on NESN and RSN.
In his last start, Estrada pitched 8.2 innings, allowing zero runs and striking out 10 in a 1-0 loss to the Rays. Chris Colabello (.337, 32 Rs, 6 HRs, 28 RBIs, 2 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his pitching opportunities against the Blue Jays, Rodriguez is 0-1 with a 17.36 ERA, one strike out and three walks. Hanley Ramirez (.283, 41 Rs, 15 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Red Sox, going 2 for 2 yesterday.
Toronto is a -139 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. The Blue Jays perform well as a favorite with a 25-15 record and have an overall money line of +243. They have an SU record of 20-17 against teams in their division and a 9-6 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Blue Jays come into the game with the top-ranked scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game. The Blue Jays rank fourth in the AL in hits with 8.9 per game.
Switching gears, the Red Sox come into this game with a win percentage of .464 when playing as the underdog (13-15) and an overall money line of -1,629. Against divisional opponents, they are 13-24 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 6-9 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.4 runs per game, above their 4.1 season average. The Red Sox average 3.1 walks per game, making them one of the most disciplined teams in the AL. Playing against AL East foes really brings the worst out of the Boston pitchers. They allow 5.5 runs per game against teams within their division, which is higher than their season average of 4.7.
The Blue Jays have gotten the best of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 6-4. This game will feature Rodriguez (LHP) on the mound against the Blue Jays, who have an 8-2 home and 11-4 overall record when they take on a left-handed starter. The right-handed Estrada will take the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 26-32 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
Boston has won 46% (16-19) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 61% (23-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Blue Jays are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Red Sox have a 12-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 7-36. The Blue Jays have a 6-28 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 12th in home runs, Boston has hit 74 this season. Toronto ranks third with 98 home runs.
Ranking seventh, Boston is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.73 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.95.
Ranking first in on-base plus slugging percentage, Toronto has an OPS of .775 this season. Boston ranks 14th with an OPS of .715.
When the Red Sox allow at least one home run, they are 12-34. When the Blue Jays allow one or more homers, they have a 25-26 record.
