In the second of a three-game series between the New York Mets (40-38) and the Chicago Cubs (40-38) at Citi Field, Bartolo Colon (9-6, 4.89 ERA) and Jon Lester (4-6, 4.03 ERA) get the start. The Cubs won the last game 1-0 and Chicago leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Jul. 1 and will air on WGN and SNY.
Colon is 0-2 with a 4.73 ERA, 13 strikeouts and 17 walks against the Cubs in his career. Lucas Duda (.260, 37 Rs, 10 HRs, 33 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. In his pitching opportunities against the Mets, Lester is 2-0 with a 4.09 ERA. He gets a struggling New York offense that’s batting just .233. Kris Bryant (.275, 41 Rs, 10 HRs, 43 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 2 yesterday with one run.
New York is a +110 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Mets are in an interesting position this season. While it has a notable overall money line (+47), its record as underdog (7-25) is less impressive. They are 1-3 as the underdog over their last 10 games. New York has averaged 2.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 3.6. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Mets rank fourth in the NL in ERA with a 3.47 team average. The Mets are fourth in the league in WHIP at 1.20.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Cubs come into this game with a win percentage of .548 when playing as the favorite (23-19) and an overall money line of +88. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 4-6 SU and have played poorly as the favorite with a 1-3 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.5 runs per game, below their 4.0 season average. One of the top road hitting teams in the NL are the Cubs, who average 8.9 hits in games away from home. The Cubs are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.53 ERA this season. They have a WHIP of 1.19 on the year, good for third in the league. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in baseball with an NL-high 8.3 strikeouts per road game.
The Cubs are 5-0 against the Mets this season. The Mets will take on a left-hander (Lester) in this game and have a 6-6 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Cubs will be the right-hander Colon. They sport a 33-31 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC, O/U – Over
Notes
Chicago won its last game in a shutout, its ninth of the season. New York has been shut out eight times this season.
When the Mets play into extra innings, they have a 4-1 record. The Cubs are 9-4 when their games exceed nine innings.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Cubs are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Mets have a 17-4 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cubs are 27-6. The Mets have a 25-3 record when outhitting opponents.
New York and Chicago both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. New York sits at 27th with 276 runs this season and Chicago ranks 23rd with 296.
Ranking 19th, New York is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 210 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at fourth with 252.
When the Mets hit at least one home run, they are 25-14, well-matched with the Cubs who are 25-15 when hitting one or more homers.
