In the first of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (36-41) and the Milwaukee Brewers (36-41) at the Great American Ball Park, Michael Lorenzen (3-2, 3.38 ERA) and Mike Fiers (3-7, 4.14 ERA) get the start. The Brewers enter this series looking to continue a five-game winning streak. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Jul. 3 and will air on FSN-WI and FSN-OH.
In his last start, Lorenzen pitched 5.2 innings, allowing one run, striking out four and walking four in a 2-1 loss to the Mets. In his pitching opportunities against the Reds, Fiers is 1-4 with a 3.86 ERA, 28 strikeouts and seven walks. Adam Lind (.295, 31 Rs, 12 HRs, 46 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well, going 2 for 6 yesterday with one run and two RBIs.
Cincinnati is favored by a small -113 margin in its matchup against Milwaukee. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. The Reds perform well as a favorite with a 22-13 record, but haven’t fared as well with the overall money line (-555). They have an SU record of 15-16 against teams in their division and a 5-3 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Reds are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with an MLB-high 81 steals. As for the pitching staff, the Reds don’t give up many hits to opposing batters, ranking fifth in the NL with only 8.3 hits allowed per game.
Moving on to the away team, the Brewers come into this game with a weak win percentage of .392 when playing as the underdog (20-31) and an overall money line of -1,474. Against divisional foes, they are 12-19 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 9-14 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 4.8 runs per game, above their 3.8 season average. Playing against NL Central foes really brings the best out of the Milwaukee pitchers. They allow 4.1 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 4.7.
The Reds had the upper hand against the Brewers in their previous seven games this season, earning a 5-2 record. The Reds will take on a right-hander (Fiers) in this game and have a 27-30 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Lorenzen will take the mound against the Brewers. Against righty starters this season, they have an awful 22-40 record.
Predictions: SU Winner – CIN, O/U – Over
Notes
The Brewers won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Reds are 11-15. The Brewers are 10-8 in close games this season.
The Brewers are 3-2 in games that go into extra innings. Meanwhile, the Reds are 4-6 in such matchups.
The Milwaukee batters brought in a solid 16 hits last game. Cincinnati has a record of 0-2 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 28-10. The Brewers have a 25-4 record when outhitting opponents.
Both falling in the bottom half of the league based on total runs this season, Cincinnati ranks 19th with 313 runs and Milwaukee is 20th with 311.
Ranking 27th, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 182 this season. Cincinnati ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 242.
The Reds are 30-21 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Brewers are 25-16 when they hit at least one homer.
