Donn Roach (0-1, 10.80 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (42-36) go up against Jarred Cosart (1-3, 4.12 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (35-46) in the second of a three-game series at Wrigley Field. The Marlins won the last game 2-1 and Miami leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jul. 4 and will air on FOX.
In his last start, Roach pitched 3.1 innings, giving up four runs, striking out one and walking one in an 8-1 loss to the Cardinals. Kris Bryant (.275, 42 Rs, 10 HRs, 43 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run and one stolen base. The Marlins were unsuccessful the last time Cosart pitched. He tossed, going 4.0 innings, allowing two runs, striking out three and walking three in a 7-1 loss to the Dodgers. Dee Gordon (.344, 41 Rs, 1 HR, 21 RBIs, 28 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two stolen bases.
Chicago is a -133 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is presently unavailable. The Cubs are 25-19 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +394. Chicago has averaged 2.0 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.0. The Cubs typically don’t swing at bad pitches, which has led to an NL-high 3.5 walks per home game. As for the pitching staff, the Cubs rank fourth in the NL in ERA with a 3.39 team average. The Cubs don’t allow many hitters to get on base, ranking second in the league with a 1.17 WHIP. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out, leading the NL with 8.7 strikeouts per game.
Switching gears, the Marlins come into this game with a weak win percentage of .378 when playing as the underdog (17-28) and an overall money line of -1,178. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 2-6 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 4-6. During the last 10 games, they averaged 2.7 runs per game, below their 3.7 season average.
The Marlins are 3-1 against the Cubs this season. This game will feature Cosart (RHP) on the mound against the Cubs, who have a 35-31 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Marlins will be the right-hander Roach. They sport a 25-37 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – CHC
Notes
Miami has won 37% (15-26) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Chicago has won 52% (16-15) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Cubs are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have a 12-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 7-30. The Cubs have a 7-27 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 16th in home runs, Miami has hit 69 this season. Chicago ranks 14th with 73 home runs.
Ranking 12th, Chicago is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.32 per game. Miami ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 8.63.
Ranking 21st, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.687). Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .699.
When the Marlins allow at least one home run, they are 17-29. When the Cubs allow one or more homers, they have a 22-24 record.
