Alex Wood (5-5, 3.17 ERA) and the Atlanta Braves (39-41) go up against Kevin Correia (0-2, 3.60 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (27-55) in the second of a three-game division series at Turner Field. The Phillies lost the last game 2-1, extending a five-game losing streak. The game starts at 7:15 p.m. ET on Saturday, Jul. 4 and will air on FOX.
Wood is 2-2 with a 2.61 ERA and 1.32 WHIP against the Phillies in his career. Cameron Maybin (.289, 31 Rs, 6 HRs, 37 RBIs, 14 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 4. In his pitching opportunities against the Braves, Correia is 4-3 with a 3.88 ERA. He gets a solid Atlanta offense that’s batting .255. Maikel Franco (.299, 26 Rs, 10 HRs, 34 RBIs, 1 SB) has been doing well offensively for the Phillies, going 2 for 4 yesterday.
Atlanta is a heavy -184 favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is seven runs. The Braves have a winning record of 10-6 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +458. They have a 19-20 record SU and are 5-4 as favorite within their division. The Braves will be looking to pick it up in this one after recent offensive struggles. In the last 10 games, Atlanta has only averaged 1.8 runs per game compared to the 3.9 they’ve averaged on the season. Don’t expect the Atlanta hitters to swing wildly. They average an NL-low 6.8 strikeouts per game. Atlanta’s pitching staff has put it all together in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game dropped to 3.2 during that span, compared to its 4.3 season average. The Braves don’t give up many hits to opposing batters at Turner Field, ranking third in the NL with only 8.2 hits allowed per home game.
Switching gears, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .333 when playing as the underdog (24-48) and an overall money line of -1,868. Against teams in their division, they are 11-23 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 10-22 record. During the last 10 games, they averaged 5.5 runs per game, above their 3.4 season average. The Phillies average just 7.0 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 6.5 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 5.0.
The Braves have gotten the best of the Phillies in head-to-head matchups this season, going 4-3. This game will feature Correia (RHP) on the mound against the Braves, who have a 33-35 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Phillies will be the left-hander Wood. Southpaw starters have been a big issue for them as they sport records of 2-6 on the road and 5-10 overall.
Predictions: SU Winner – ATL, O/U – Over
Notes
The Phillies lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Braves are 16-12. The Phillies are 9-16 in close games this season.
Philadelphia has won 32% (13-28) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Atlanta has won 42% (19-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Braves are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Phillies have a record of 15-11 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
It looks like the Braves have a slight leg up on the Phillies, as the Braves have won their last three games while the Phillies have lost their last five.
When they outhit their opponents, the Phillies are 17-8. The Braves have a 28-12 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 28th in runs, Philadelphia has earned 276 this season. Atlanta ranks 20th with 313 runs.
Ranking 26th, Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 184 this season. Atlanta ranks in the top half at 15th with 228.
When the Braves hit at least one home run, they are 22-14. When the Phillies hit at least one homer, they have a 16-22 record.
