Justin Verlander (0-1, 5.09 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (41-39) go up against Marco Estrada (5-4, 3.58 ERA) and the Toronto Blue Jays (42-41) in the last of a three-game series at Comerica Park. The Tigers won the last game 8-3 and Detroit leads the series 2-0. The game starts at 1:08 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and will air on RSN, FSN-DET and MLB Net.
Verlander is 3-3 with a 4.29 ERA against the Blue Jays in his career, and is up against a solid Toronto offense that’s hitting .267 on the year. Miguel Cabrera (.350, 43 Rs, 15 HRs, 54 RBIs, 1 SB) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 2 with one RBI. The Blue Jays were unsuccessful the last time Estrada pitched. He tossed, going 2.1 innings, giving up two runs (two unearned), striking out one and walking four in a 4-3 loss to the Red Sox. Chris Colabello (.335, 34 Rs, 7 HRs, 31 RBIs, 2 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Blue Jays, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Detroit is a slight -115 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Tigers have a 25-20 record and overall money line at -219. The Tigers are a superb hitting team with an AL-best 9.6 hits per game. Detroit’s pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 6.0 during that span, compared to its 4.5 season average.
Switching gears, the Blue Jays come into this game with a win percentage of .421 when playing as the underdog (16-22) and an overall money line of -169. The Blue Jays are the number one overall scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game so far. Toronto is one of the top hitting teams in the AL with an average of 9.0 hits per contest. The Blue Jays average just 7.2 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the AL.
So far this season, the Tigers are 2-0 against the Blue Jays. This game will feature Estrada (RHP) on the mound against the Tigers, who have a 29-31 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Verlander will take the mound against the Blue Jays, who have a 31-34 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – TOR, O/U – Over
Notes
Detroit has won 53% (18-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Toronto has won 57% (24-18) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Tigers are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Blue Jays have an 8-10 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Tigers have a slight leg up on the Blue Jays, as the Tigers have won their last two games while the Blue Jays have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Tigers are 35-10. The Blue Jays have a 36-5 record when outhitting opponents.
Toronto tops the league in runs with 450 this season. Detroit ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 354.
Ranking 14th, Detroit is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 238 this season. Toronto ranks in the top five at third with 272.
When the Tigers hit at least one home run, they are 30-16, well-matched with the Blue Jays who are 37-21 when hitting one or more homers.
