Matt Garza (5-12, 5.17 ERA) and Odrisamer Despaigne (5-7, 4.75 ERA) take the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (46-63) and the San Diego Padres (52-56) at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 8-5 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 6 and can be seen on FSSD.
Garza pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking four in a 4-2 defeat to the Cubs. Ryan Braun (.273, 64 Rs, 19 HRs, 63 RBIs, 16 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one run. Despaigne went 6.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking one in a 5-3 win over the Marlins in his last outing. Justin Upton (.249, 54 Rs, 18 HRs, 57 RBIs, 17 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Padres, going 2 for 4 yesterday with one run.
Milwaukee is a slim -115 favorite at home against San Diego. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently eight runs. The Brewers have an overall money line of -1,748 and a record as the favorite of 18-24. Milwaukee is a disappointing 1-3 as the favorite over its last 10 games. The Brewers have no trouble scoring as they rank fifth in the NL in home offense with 4.1 runs per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Brewers, who rank fifth in the NL in strikeouts per home game with 8.5.
In games where it is the underdog, San Diego has a 26-35 record and an overall money line of -268. Offensively, the Padres have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 3.9 runs per game by averaging 5.0 during that stretch.
The Brewers lead the season series, 2-1. The Brewers have a 32-52 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Despaigne takes the mound. Garza (RHP) will be on the hill against the Padres, who have a 40-45 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – SD, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Milwaukee’s last 13 games.
Milwaukee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games at home.
Milwaukee is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Milwaukee’s last 14 games when playing San Diego.
Milwaukee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego.
When leading after 7 innings, San Diego is 27-22, while Milwaukee is 26-27.
The Padres are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Brewers have a 12-28 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 8-49. The Padres have a 9-41 record when opponents outhit them.
Tied at 18th for total home runs, Milwaukee and San Diego have each hit 94 homers this season.
Ranking 13th, San Diego is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.15 per game. Milwaukee ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 8.46.
Ranking 30th, San Diego is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.673). Milwaukee ranks near the bottom at 22nd with an OPS of .697.
When the Padres allow at least one home run, they are 29-38. When the Brewers allow one or more homers, they have a 25-43 record.
