Michael Lorenzen (3-6, 4.80 ERA) and Michael Wacha (12-4, 3.09 ERA) take the hill in the last of a three-game series between the Cincinnati Reds (48-57) and the St. Louis Cardinals (68-39) at the Great American Ball Park. The Cardinals won the last game 4-3 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 12:35 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 6 and can be seen on FSOH and FSMW.
Lorenzen pitched 5.2 innings in his last outing, surrendering five runs, striking out six and walking three in a 5-4 defeat to the Pirates. Todd Frazier (.264, 62 Rs, 27 HRs, 68 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 6 yesterday with one run and one RBI. Wacha went 7.0 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 7-0 win over the Rockies in his most recent start. Randal Grichuk (.292, 39 Rs, 13 HRs, 40 RBIs, 4 SBs) has been successful at the plate for the Cardinals, going 2 for 6 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
St. Louis takes on Cincinnati as a -148 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Reds have recorded an overall money line of -810 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 21-36. Within its division, Cincinnati has a 7-6 as the underdog and a 22-24 SU. Cincinnati leads the MLB in steals, swiping 102 bases. Turning to the pitchers, opponents have consistently been struck out by the Reds, who rank fourth in the NL in strikeouts per home game with 8.6.
As for their opponent, St. Louis is coming in with an overall money line of +2,005 and an impressive record of 55-23 as the favorite. They have been playing solid baseball as favorite with a 20-8 record against NL Central rivals, and a 26-16 record SU. St. Louis is excellent at drawing walks with 3.1 per game, ranking fifth in the NL. St. Louis’s pitching staff has set the standard for its league, with an NL-low 2.66 ERA. When it comes to preventing batters from getting on base, the Cardinals are one of the best in the league with a WHIP of 1.20 for the season. The Cardinals have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.4 strikeouts per road game.
The Cardinals lead the season series, 7-4. The Reds have a 36-43 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Wacha takes the mound. Lorenzen (RHP) will be on the hill against the Cardinals, who have a very good 53-25 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – StL, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games at home.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 5 games when playing St. Louis.
Cincinnati is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing St. Louis.
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games when playing at home against St. Louis.
In their last game, the Cardinals won by a margin of one run. The Reds are 17-19 in one-run games. The Cardinals have a 24-18 record in close games.
Cincinnati has won 42% (17-23) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, St. Louis has won 65% (22-12) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Cardinals managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Reds who are heading in with a 7-6 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Reds are 37-15. The Cardinals have a 43-13 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 21st, Cincinnati is near the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 416 this season. St. Louis ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 420.
Cincinnati and St. Louis both rank in the top 10 of the league in walks. Cincinnati sits at ninth with 317 this season and St. Louis ranks seventh with 323.
When the Reds hit at least one home run, they are 40-28. When the Cardinals hit at least one homer, they have a 43-18 record.
