Justin Nicolino (1-1, 4.09 ERA) and Steven Wright (5-4, 4.12 ERA) take the hill in the first of a two-game series between the Miami Marlins (44-68) and the Boston Red Sox (50-62) at Marlins Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Aug. 11 and can be seen on FSFL and NESN.
Nicolino pitched 4.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering five runs, striking out two and walking one in a 7-1 defeat to the Dodgers. Christian Yelich (.275, 37 Rs, 6 HRs, 29 RBIs, 14 SBs) continued his strong play Sunday, going 3 for 5 with one RBI. Wright went 8.0 innings, surrendering one run, striking out nine and walking two in a 2-1 win over the Yankees in his last outing. David Ortiz (.249, 47 Rs, 23 HRs, 65 RBIs) has been successful at the plate for the Red Sox, going 2 for 4 Sunday with one run.
The odds for Miami and Boston are even, while the Over/Under (O/U) is unavailable as of now. In interleague play, the Marlins have a 5-10 record SU. The Marlins lead the MLB in extra base hits with 259. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 76 bases. Miami’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.3 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.1. The Marlins are the fifth-best team in the NL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.4 hits per game to their opponents this season.
Boston is 8-4 SU against teams in the NL. Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 5.5 during that stretch. Boston is excellent at not striking out with just 6.7 per game, ranking third in the AL. The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game, but does better whenever an NL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against teams from the NL.
The Red Sox have the edge in the season series, 2-0. The Marlins have a 35-54 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Wright takes the mound. Nicolino (RHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 38-44 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bos
Notes
The Marlins are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Red Sox have a record of 25-18 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Red Sox are 10-51. The Marlins have a 9-43 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 28th in home runs, Miami has hit 81 this season. Boston ranks 14th with 101 home runs.
Ranking 10th, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.46 per game. Boston ranks in the top five at fourth with 8.84.
Ranking 28th, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.675). Boston ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .713.
The Red Sox are 23-52 when they allow at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 20-41 record.
