Adam Conley (1-0, 4.05 ERA) and Eduardo Rodriguez (6-4, 4.17 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a two-game series between the Miami Marlins (45-68) and the Boston Red Sox (50-63) at Marlins Park. The Marlins won the last game 5-4 and Miami leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Aug. 12 and can be seen on FSFL and NESN.
Conley pitched 3.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering three runs, striking out one and walking one in a 9-8 defeat to the Braves. Justin Bour (.250, 20 Rs, 10 HRs, 33 RBIs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one RBI. Rodriguez went 7.0 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out five and walking two in a 2-1 defeat to the Yankees in his most recent start. Hanley Ramirez (.262, 56 Rs, 19 HRs, 53 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two RBIs.
Boston is a slim -114 favorite over Miami. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently seven runs. The Marlins have recorded an overall money line of -2,340 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 23-44. Miami has recorded a disappointing 1-4 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Marlins lead the MLB in extra base hits with 262. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 76 bases. Miami’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.3 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.1.
In games where it is the favorite, Boston has a 30-35 record and an overall money line of -1,849. Boston has put in a great performance against National League opponents, coming in with a nice record SU ({betdsi.at.nl.su_record}) and as the favorite (7-3). Offensively, the Red Sox have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.2 runs per game by averaging 5.5 during that stretch. Boston is excellent at not striking out with just 6.7 per game, ranking third in the AL. The Red Sox allow 4.8 runs per game, but does better whenever an NL opponent is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.0 against teams from the NL.
The Red Sox lead the season series, 2-1. The Marlins have a 9-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Rodriguez takes the mound. Conley (LHP) will be on the hill against the Red Sox, who have a 12-18 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bos, O/U – Under
Notes
When leading after 7 innings, Boston is 25-29, while Miami is 22-37.
The Boston batters brought in a solid nine hits last game. Miami has a record of 10-39 when their opponents get that many hits or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 32-19. The Red Sox have a 40-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 30th, Miami is at the bottom of the league in runs, scoring 405 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with 476.
Ranking 25th, Miami is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 274 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 11th with 333.
The Marlins are 27-33 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Red Sox are 37-35 when they hit at least one homer.
