Matt Harvey (11-7, 2.61 ERA) gets the ball for the New York Mets (63-54) as they meet Jeff Locke (6-7, 4.43 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (68-46) in the last of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Pirates won the last game 5-3 and Pittsburgh leads the series 2-0. The game gets underway at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 16 and will air on RTPT, SNY and TBS.
In his last start, Harvey pitched 8.0 innings, allowing zero runs and striking out four in a 4-0 victory over the Rockies. Yoenis Cespedes (.295, 70 Rs, 20 HRs, 69 RBIs, 5 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 6 with one stolen base. The Pirates were unsuccessful to the Cardinals 4-3 the last time Locke pitched. He went 5.0 innings, allowing four runs, striking out three and walking three. Jung Ho Kang (.288, 43 Rs, 9 HRs, 40 RBIs, 5 SBs) went 1 for 6 yesterday.
New York, a -158 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Pittsburgh. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is seven runs. The Mets perform well as a favorite with a 49-17 record and have an overall money line of +937. Over the last 10 games, they have a very good record when playing as the favorite (7-2). Over their past 10 games, New York’s offense has been playing lights out, averaging 4.9 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.7. The Mets are an exceptional hitting team with an MLB-best .237 team batting average. Turning to the pitching staff, the Mets lead the league in WHIP at 1.15. The have been extremely effective at striking opposing batters out at Citi Field, averaging 8.3 strikeouts per home game.
Switching gears, the Pirates come into this game with a win percentage of .412 when playing as the underdog (14-20) and an overall money line of +1,289. The Pirates are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.27 ERA this season. The Pittsburgh pitching staff has been an intimidating group on the road this year, averaging 7.8 strikeouts per game.
The Pirates are 5-0 against the Mets this season. The Mets will take on a left-hander (Locke) in this game and have a 13-11 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Harvey will take the mound against the Pirates, who have a 55-37 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
Pittsburgh has won 47% (22-25) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, New York has won 57% (25-19) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 16 strikeouts. The Mets have a record of 1-1 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Mets are 14-44. The Pirates have a 16-35 record when opponents outhit them.
Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league at 22nd when it comes to home runs, hitting 97 this season. New York ranks in the bottom half at 16th with 108.
Ranking 15th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.00 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.01.
Ranking 29th, New York is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.676). Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .715.
When the Pirates allow at least one home run, they are 29-28. When the Mets allow one or more homers, they have a 26-38 record.
