Matt Garza (6-12, 4.82 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (51-68) meet Justin Nicolino (1-1, 4.86 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (47-70) in the first of a three-game series at Miller Park. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Aug. 17 and will air on FSFL and FSWI.
In his last start, Garza pitched 7.0 innings, giving up two runs, striking out four and walking two in a 3-2 loss to the Cubs. Gerardo Parra (.323, 68 Rs, 12 HRs, 36 RBIs, 9 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 5 for 6 with three runs, one home run, and three RBIs. The Marlins were unsuccessful the last time Nicolino pitched. He did not do well, pitching 5.2 innings, allowing four runs and walking one in a 5-4 loss to the Red Sox. Justin Bour (.250, 22 Rs, 11 HRs, 35 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Milwaukee is a -155 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Brewers have a 22-24 record and overall money line at -1,745. They are 5-5 SU and perfect as the favorite (4-0) in their last 10 games.
Switching gears, the Marlins come into this game with a weak win percentage of .352 when playing as the underdog (25-46) and an overall money line of -2,324. During the last 10 games, they averaged 4.6 runs per game, above their 3.6 season average. Miami is one of the top hitting teams in the league with 270 extra base hits. Miami is a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in the MLB with 79 stolen bases. Miami’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 5.5 runs per game during the last 10 games, higher than their season average of 4.1. They also allow just 8.4 hits per game, good for fifth in the NL.
The Brewers will take on a right-hander (Nicolino) in this game and have a 36-55 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Garza will take the mound against the Marlins, who have a 36-55 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mil, O/U – Under
Notes
The Brewers are coming off of a hot pitching game where they recorded 11 strikeouts. The Marlins have a record of 4-10 when they are struck out that many times or more.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-52. The Marlins have a 9-44 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami ranks near the bottom of the league at 29th when it comes to home runs, hitting 84 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half at 19th with 103.
Ranking 11th, Milwaukee is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.36 per game. Miami ranks in the top 10 at eighth with 8.55.
Milwaukee and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Milwaukee sits at 24th with an OPS of .693 and Miami ranks 27th with an OPS of .680.
The Marlins are 22-43 when they allow at least one home run. The Brewers perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 29-47 record.
