Brad Hand (2-3, 4.74 ERA) and Jerome Williams (4-8, 5.47 ERA) start in the first of a four-game series between the Miami Marlins (49-71) and the Philadelphia Phillies (46-73) at Marlins Park. Action begins at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 20 and can be seen on FSFL and CSPh.
Hand pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering six runs and striking out five in a 6-2 defeat to the Cardinals. Justin Bour (.247, 24 Rs, 12 HRs, 38 RBIs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and three RBIs. Williams went 6.0 innings, surrendering one and striking out four in a 4-2 defeat to the Brewers in his last outing. Jeff Francoeur (.279, 27 Rs, 12 HRs, 38 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and two RBIs.
Miami is a -143 favorite against Philadelphia and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Marlins have an overall money line of -1,836 and a record as the favorite of 21-24. Miami has gone winless in its last 10 as the favorite. The Marlins have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.2 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 3.7 runs per game. The Marlins lead the MLB in extra base hits with 281. Miami is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 86 bases.
In the other locker room, Philadelphia is coming in with an overall money line of -796 and a disappointing record of 41-66 as the underdog. They have played poorly as the underdog with a 15-24 record against fellow NL East members, and a 4-6 record SU. Philadelphia is excellent at not striking out with just 7.4 per game, ranking fourth in the NL. The Phillies average 5.0 runs allowed per game, but does better whenever another team from the NL East is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average down to 4.1 against division foes.
The Phillies lead the season series, 5-4. The Marlins have a 39-55 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Williams takes the mound. Hand (LHP) will be on the hill against the Phillies, who have a 10-15 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Over
Notes
Philadelphia earned its fourth shutout of the season in its last game. Miami has been shut out nine times this season.
Miami has won 38% (23-38) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Philadelphia has won 40% (23-35) of its games when taking a late lead.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Phillies are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Marlins have an 8-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 36-19. The Phillies have a 26-11 record when outhitting opponents.
Miami and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. Miami sits at 25th with 450 runs this season and Philadelphia ranks 29th with 438.
Ranking 30th, Philadelphia is at the bottom of the league in walks, notching 264 this season. Miami ranks near the bottom at 25th with 288.
When the Marlins hit at least one home run, they are 29-35, well-matched with the Phillies who are 29-32 when hitting one or more homers.
