Justin Nicolino (2-1, 4.24 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (50-72) meet Aaron Harang (5-14, 4.79 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (48-74) in the third of a four-game division series at Marlins Park. The Phillies won the last game 7-1 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Aug. 22 and will air on FSFL and CSPh.
In his last start, Nicolino pitched 6.2 innings, allowing two runs, striking out three and walking two in a 6-2 victory over the Brewers. Justin Bour (.254, 25 Rs, 12 HRs, 39 RBIs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 4. The Phillies were unsuccessful to the Brewers 6-1 the last time Harang pitched. He went 4.2 innings, giving up six runs, striking out two and walking one. Ryan Howard (.238, 43 Rs, 19 HRs, 67 RBIs) has been hitting the ball well, going 3 for 5 yesterday with one run and two RBIs.
Miami, a -135 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Philadelphia. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at eight runs. When playing as the favorite, the Marlins have a 22-24 record and overall money line at -1,836. They have SU record of 7-3 and are unbeaten as the favorite (1-0) over their last 10 games. Miami has averaged 6.3 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 3.8. The Marlins are a dangerous hitting team with an MLB-best 287 extra base hits. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in all of baseball with 87 steals.
Moving on to the away team, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .385 when playing as the underdog (42-67) and an overall money line of -671. They have played poorly as the underdog as of late. They managed a 3-7 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 3-7. The Phillies average just 7.4 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allowed 6.9 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 5.0.
The Phillies have mostly come out on top against the Marlins in their previous 11 games this season, earning a 6-5 record. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Harang) in this game and have a 40-56 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Nicolino will take the mound against the Phillies, who have a 36-58 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Over
Notes
For the 15th time this season, the Marlins registered at least two errors in a game.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Marlins are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Phillies have a 12-3 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 10-46. The Phillies have a 16-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Tied at 28th for total home runs, Miami and Philadelphia have each hit 90 homers this season.
Ranking sixth, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.67 per game. Philadelphia ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.70.
Miami and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Miami sits at 25th with an OPS of .689 and Philadelphia ranks 26th with an OPS of .688.
The Phillies are 23-53 when they allow at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 23-44 record.
