In the last of a four-game series between the Miami Marlins (50-73) and the Philadelphia Phillies (49-74) at Marlins Park, Adam Conley (1-0, 5.82 ERA) and Aaron Nola (3-1, 4.41 ERA) take the mound. The Phillies won the last game 4-2 and Philadelphia leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 1:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Aug. 23 and will air on FSFL and CSPh.
In his most recent outing, Conley pitched 3.2 innings, allowing four runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 9-6 loss to the Brewers. Justin Bour (.256, 25 Rs, 12 HRs, 39 RBIs) went 1 for 2 yesterday. The Phillies were unsuccessful the last time Nola pitched. He tossed 5.0 innings, giving up three runs, striking out five and walking four in an 8-5 loss to the Blue Jays.
Miami is a -125 favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Marlins are 22-25 as the favorite and have an overall money line of -1,974. They have disappointing records of 9-14 as the favorite and 17-29 SU within their division. Miami has averaged 6.0 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 3.8. The Marlins lead the majors in extra base hits with 290. The Marlins are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 88 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Miami’s pitching staff has fallen apart in the past 10 games. Its average runs allowed per game rose to 5.3 during that span, compared to its 4.2 season average.
Moving on to the away team, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .391 when playing as the underdog (43-67) and an overall money line of -543. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 3-7 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with a 3-7 record. The Phillies average just 7.4 strikeouts per game, one of the lowest marks in the NL. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allowed 6.7 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 5.0.
The Phillies have mostly come out on top against the Marlins in their previous 12 games this season, earning a 7-5 record. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Nola) in this game and have a 40-57 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The left-handed Conley will take the mound against the Phillies, who have an 11-16 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Over
Notes
Miami has won 38% (24-39) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Philadelphia has won 40% (24-36) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Phillies managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Marlins who are heading in with an 11-7 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 10-47. The Phillies have a 16-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Miami and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league in home runs. Miami sits at 29th with 90 home runs this season and Philadelphia ranks 28th with 93.
Ranking sixth, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.66 per game. Philadelphia ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.72.
Miami and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. Miami sits at 27th with an OPS of .687 and Philadelphia ranks 25th with an OPS of .690.
The Phillies are 23-53 when they allow at least one home run. The Marlins perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with a 23-45 record.
