Justin Nicolino (2-1, 3.77 ERA) and the Miami Marlins (51-76) go up against Gerrit Cole (14-7, 2.49 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (76-49) in the last of a four-game series at Marlins Park. The Pirates won the last game 7-2 and Pittsburgh leads the series 2-1. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Thursday, Aug. 27 and will air on FSFL and RTPT.
In his last start, Nicolino pitched 7.2 innings, giving up two runs, striking out four and walking one in a 4-2 loss to the Phillies. Justin Bour (.256, 26 Rs, 12 HRs, 41 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday. The Pirates were unsuccessful to the Giants 3-2 the last time Cole pitched. He went 7.0 innings, allowing zero runs (one unearned), striking out eight and walking three. Andrew McCutchen (.300, 73 Rs, 20 HRs, 85 RBIs, 6 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Pirates, going 2 for 5 yesterday with one run, one home run, and four RBIs.
Miami, a +160 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Pittsburgh. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at seven runs. The Marlins perform poorly as an underdog with a 29-48 record and have an overall money line of -2,195. The most recent 10-game stretch for the Marlins has gone great. Over that span, Miami is averaging 4.7 runs per game, well over their season average of 3.7. The Marlins lead the majors in extra base hits with 300. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in all of baseball with 94 steals.
On the other side, the Pirates have a nice record of 59-28 when they are favored and are +1,706 overall with the money line. Over the past 10 matchups, they are 7-3 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 6-2 record. The Pirates are a problem for opposing batters, sporting a 3.17 ERA this season.
The Pirates had the upper hand against the Marlins in their previous six games this season, earning a 5-1 record. This game will feature Cole (RHP) on the mound against the Marlins, who have a 41-59 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Nicolino will take the mound against the Pirates, who have a 62-38 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
The Marlins managed to give up five walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Pirates who are coming in with a 15-6 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Marlins are 10-49. The Pirates have a 17-37 record when opponents outhit them.
Both falling near the bottom of the league based on total home runs this season, Miami ranks 29th with 91 homers and Pittsburgh is 21st with 108.
Ranking seventh, Miami is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.59 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.10.
Ranking 29th, Miami is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.684). Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 13th with an OPS of .722.
When the Pirates allow at least one home run, they are 31-30. When the Marlins allow one or more homers, they have a 23-47 record.
