In the second of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (61-70) and the New York Yankees (72-58) at Fenway Park, Rick Porcello (6-11, 5.47 ERA) and Michael Pineda (9-8, 4.19 ERA) take the mound. The Red Sox won the last game 4-3 and Boston leads the series 1-0. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Tuesday, Sep. 1 and will air on YES, NESN and MLBN.
In his last start, Porcello pitched 7.0 innings, allowing zero runs and striking out five in a 3-0 victory over the White Sox. David Ortiz (.267, 58 Rs, 29 HRs, 80 RBIs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 3 with one run, one home run, and one RBI. The Yankees were unsuccessful the last time Pineda pitched. He did not do well, pitching 4.1 innings, allowing five runs, striking out three and walking one in a 6-2 loss to the Astros. Alex Rodriguez (.256, 69 Rs, 26 HRs, 71 RBIs, 3 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
Boston is a +120 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is nine runs. When playing as the underdog, the Red Sox have a 27-31 record and overall money line at -1,362. They have disappointing records of 10-13 as the underdog and 20-30 SU within their division. The Red Sox are an exceptional hitting team with an AL-best 10.1 hits per home game. The most recent 10 game stretch for Boston’s pitching staff has gone great. Over that span, Boston’s opponents are averaging 3.6 runs per game, below their season average of 4.8.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Yankees come into this game with a solid win percentage of .610 when playing as the favorite (47-30) and an overall money line of +342. Against divisional opponents, they are 28-22 SU and have played well as the favorite with a 17-11 record. They sport the second-ranked offense in the AL, averaging 4.9 runs per game. New York is one of the top hitting teams in the AL with an average of 8.8 hits per contest. New York has an eye for the strike zone, ranking 3.4 in the AL with third walks per game.
The Yankees have gotten the better of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-5. The Red Sox will take on a right-hander (Pineda) in this game and have a 45-49 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Porcello will take the mound against the Yankees, who have a 50-43 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYY, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Yankees lost by a margin of one run. The Red Sox are 17-18 in one-run games. The Yankees have a 21-21 record in close games.
New York has won 46% (29-34) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Boston has won 46% (30-35) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Yankees are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Red Sox have a record of 30-20 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
The Red Sox and the Yankees are both 49-7 when they notch more hits than their opponent.
Boston and New York both rank in the top five of the league in runs. Boston sits at third with 593 runs this season and New York ranks second with 630.
Ranking 11th, Boston is in the top half of the league in walks, notching 382 this season. New York ranks in the top five at fourth with 442.
The Red Sox are 46-40 in games where they hit one or more home runs. The Yankees are 61-34 when they hit at least one homer.
