Zach Davies (0-0, 0.00 ERA) and Jeff Locke (7-8, 4.46 ERA) are on the hill in the second of a three-game series between the Milwaukee Brewers (56-75) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (79-51) at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 7-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 1-0. Action begins at 8:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 2 and can be seen on FSWI and RTPT.
This is the first start for Davies this season. Ryan Braun (.278, 76 Rs, 24 HRs, 78 RBIs, 19 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one RBI, and one stolen base. Locke went 7.0 innings, surrendering two runs, striking out three and walking one in a 7-2 win over the Marlins in his last outing. Jung Ho Kang (.290, 52 Rs, 13 HRs, 49 RBIs, 5 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Pittsburgh takes on Milwaukee as a -145 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Brewers have recorded an overall money line of -2,027 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 29-48. Milwaukee has recorded a disappointing 1-4 record as the underdog over its last 10 games. The Brewers have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.6 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.0 runs per game. Milwaukee’s pitching staff has been doing poorly against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, allowing an average of 6.4 runs per game, well above its season average of 4.5.
In the other locker room, Pittsburgh is coming in with an overall money line of +1,920 and an impressive record of 63-29 as the favorite. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 7-2 record, and a 7-3 record SU. Offensively, they average 4.2 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. The Pirates are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the NL with 9.1 hits per game. Shifting to the pitching staff and defense, the The Pirates allow just 3.6 runs per game, ranking them third in the NL. The Pirates have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 7.8 strikeouts per road game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Brewers lead the season series, 7-6. The Brewers have a 16-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Locke takes the mound. Davies (RHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a very good 64-38 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
Milwaukee has won 51% (30-29) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Pittsburgh has won 52% (28-26) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming off of a weak pitching game where they recorded five strikeouts. The Brewers have a record of 15-8 when opponents’ pitchers have that many strikeouts or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-58. The Pirates have an 18-39 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 21st in home runs, Pittsburgh has hit 113 this season. Milwaukee ranks 20th with 118 home runs.
Ranking 10th, Milwaukee is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.45 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.05.
Ranking 22nd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.704). Pittsburgh ranks in the top half at 15th with an OPS of .721.
The Pirates are 33-30 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Brewers are 32-53 when they allow at least one homer.
