This game could be low scoring as Matt Harvey (11-7, 2.48 ERA) and the New York Mets (73-59) meet Aaron Nola (5-1, 3.26 ERA) and the Philadelphia Phillies (53-80) in the last of a three-game series at Citi Field. The Phillies won the last game 14-8 and the series is currently tied 1-1. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Sep. 2 and will air on CSPh and SNY.
In his last start, Harvey pitched 6.0 innings, allowing zero runs, striking out eight and walking one in a 6-4 loss to the Red Sox. Yoenis Cespedes (.290, 84 Rs, 27 HRs, 86 RBIs, 7 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with two runs, one home run, and two RBIs. The Phillies were victorious the last time Nola pitched. He had a good outing, pitching 7.0 innings, allowing one run, striking out six and walking two in a 7-1 victory over the Padres. Jeff Francoeur (.271, 30 Rs, 12 HRs, 43 RBIs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs and one RBI.
New York is a considerable -240 favorite at home and the Over/Under (O/U) for this matchup is set at seven runs. The Mets have a winning record of 57-21 when playing as the favorite and an overall money line of +1,176. They are 8-2 as the favorite over their last 10 games. New York has averaged 7.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 4.1. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Mets rank third in the NL in ERA with a 3.35 team average. The Mets don’t allow many hitters to get on base, leading the league with a 1.17 WHIP.
Switching gears, the Phillies come into this game with a weak win percentage of .392 when playing as the underdog (47-73) and an overall money line of -652. Against fellow NL East members, they are 21-32 SU and have played poorly as the underdog with an 18-30 record. Playing against NL East foes really brings the best out of the Philadelphia pitchers. They allow 4.5 runs per game against teams within their division, which is lower than their season average of 5.0.
The Mets have gotten the best of the Phillies in head-to-head matchups this season, going 13-2. The Mets will take on a right-hander (Nola) in this game and have a 57-45 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. The right-handed Harvey will take the mound against the Phillies, who have a 40-63 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – NYM, O/U – Over
Notes
New York recorded at least two errors for the 14th time this season.
The Mets managed to give up six walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Phillies who are coming in with a 1-1 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they are outhit, the Phillies are 18-61. The Mets have a 15-48 record when opponents outhit them.
Philadelphia ranks near the bottom of the league at 27th when it comes to home runs, hitting 104 this season. New York ranks in the top half at 12th with 135.
Ranking 14th, New York is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.27 per game. Philadelphia ranks in the top 10 at sixth with 8.65.
New York and Philadelphia both rank near the bottom of the league for their on-base plus slugging percentage. New York sits at 24th with an OPS of .701 and Philadelphia ranks 26th with an OPS of .692.
The Phillies are 25-59 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Mets are 34-43 when they allow at least one homer.
