Taylor Jungmann (8-5, 2.48 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (57-75) square off against Francisco Liriano (9-6, 3.28 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (79-52) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Miller Park. The Brewers won the last game 9-4 and Milwaukee leads the series 2-0. Action begins at 7:20 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sep. 3 and can be seen on FSWI and RTPT.
Jungmann pitched 6.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering zero runs, striking out five and walking three in a 5-0 win over the Reds. Ryan Braun (.282, 78 Rs, 24 HRs, 79 RBIs, 19 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 3 for 5 with two runs and one RBI. Liriano went 6.0 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out five and walking three in a 5-3 defeat to the Rockies in his most recent start.
Pittsburgh takes on Milwaukee as a -155 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at seven runs. The Brewers have recorded an overall money line of -1,748 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 31-48. Milwaukee has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 15-22 and 23-29 as the underdog and SU respectively. The Brewers have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 5.8 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.1 runs per game. Milwaukee’s pitchers put it all together when division rivals are on the field. Its average runs allowed per game drops to 4.0 against fellow NL Central members, compared to its 4.5 season average.
In the other locker room, Pittsburgh is coming in with an overall money line of +1,621 and an impressive record of 63-31 as the favorite. They have played poorly as the favorite with a 16-17 record against NL Central foes, and a 6-4 record SU. Offensively, they average 4.2 runs per game, which is good for fifth in the NL. The Pirates are tough outs for opponents, ranking fourth in the NL with 9.0 hits per game. The Pirates allow 3.7 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the NL Central Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.4 against division foes.
The Brewers lead the season series, 8-6. The Brewers have a 17-14 record against left-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Liriano takes the mound. Jungmann (RHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a 64-40 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Pit, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Milwaukee’s last 8 games.
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Milwaukee’s last 7 games at home.
Milwaukee is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Milwaukee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Milwaukee’s last 6 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh has won 51% (28-27) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Milwaukee has won 52% (31-29) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Pirates are coming into this game after allowing two walks during their last outing. The Brewers have a 26-47 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 10-58. The Pirates have an 18-40 record when opponents outhit them.
Pittsburgh ranks near the bottom of the league at 21st when it comes to home runs, hitting 114 this season. Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half at 20th with 119.
Ranking ninth, Milwaukee is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.51 per game. Pittsburgh ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.02.
Ranking 22nd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.706). Pittsburgh ranks in the bottom half at 16th with an OPS of .720.
The Pirates are 33-31 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Brewers are 33-53 when they allow at least one homer.
