Dallas Keuchel (16-6, 2.24 ERA) starts for the Houston Astros (74-62) as they square off against Tyler Duffey (2-1, 4.56 ERA) and the Minnesota Twins (70-65) in the last of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Twins won the last game 3-2 and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 6 and can be seen on FSN and RTSW.
Keuchel pitched 7.0 innings in his last outing, surrendering one run, striking out eight and walking one in an 8-3 win over the Mariners. Carlos Correa (.279, 38 Rs, 16 HRs, 46 RBIs, 11 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 3 for 4. Duffey went 4.2 innings, surrendering three runs, striking out two and walking three in an 8-6 defeat to the White Sox in his most recent start. Eddie Rosario (.271, 47 Rs, 9 HRs, 39 RBIs, 10 SBs) has been successful at the plate, going 2 for 4 yesterday with two RBIs.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Houston, a substantial -240 favorite, takes on Minnesota. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently seven runs. The Astros have an overall money line of +653 and a record as the favorite of 44-33. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 101 bases. As for the pitchers, opposing offenses have been stifled by the Astros, who have a team ERA of only 3.28. The Astros are the second-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Astros, who rank fifth in the AL in strikeouts per game with 7.8.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 53-54 record and an overall money line of +1,813.
The Twins lead the season series, 3-2. The Astros have a 48-40 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Duffey takes the mound. Keuchel (LHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a 25-21 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Hou, O/U – Over
Notes
Minnesota has won 51% (24-23) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Houston has won 59% (30-21) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Twins managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are heading in with a 37-20 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 53-16. The Twins have a 47-6 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 12th, Minnesota sits in the top half of the league in runs, scoring 582 this season. Houston ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 588.
Ranking 23rd, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 339 this season. Houston ranks in the top 10 at 10th with 406.
The Astros are 61-37 when they hit at least one home run. The Twins perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 53-29 record.
