Tyler Duffey (2-1, 4.18 ERA) and the Minnesota Twins (74-68) meet Kyle Lobstein (3-7, 5.31 ERA) and the Detroit Tigers (65-77) in the first of a three-game division series at Target Field. The game gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 14 and will air on FSDT and FSN.
In his most recent outing, Duffey pitched 6.2 innings, giving up two runs, striking out eight and walking one in an 8-5 loss to the Astros. Brian Dozier (.240, 94 Rs, 27 HRs, 70 RBIs, 11 SBs) played well again yesterday, going 2 for 5. The Tigers were unsuccessful to the Rays 8-0 the last time Lobstein pitched. He went 5.2 innings, allowing five runs, striking out six and walking two. J.D. Martinez (.285, 82 Rs, 36 HRs, 94 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Tigers, going 3 for 5 yesterday with three RBIs.
Minnesota, a -154 favorite, will look to capitalize at home against Detroit. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is set at eight runs. The Twins are 16-11 as the favorite and have an overall money line of +2,135. They have an SU record of 31-28 against teams in their division and an 8-4 record when they were the favorite in those games. The Twins have one of the most prolific home offenses in the entire AL, averaging 4.8 runs per game. Don’t expect the Minnesota hitters to swing wildly in their own ballpark. They average only 7.0 strikeouts per home game. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Twins are the best in the AL in walks allowed at home, giving up just 2.2 per game.
Across the field, the Tigers have a subpar record of 30-47 when they are the underdog and are -1,151 overall with the money line. Against divisional foes, they are 32-25 SU, but have a 12-17 record when they were an underdog to win. Detroit is the top hitting team in the league, converting .272 of their at-bats for hits. The last 10 games have really brought the worst out of the Detroit pitchers. They allowed 7.0 runs per game during that span, which is higher than their season average of 5.1.
The Tigers have gotten the better of the Twins in head-to-head matchups this season, going 8-5. The Twins will take on a left-hander (Lobstein) in this game and have a 25-23 record against left-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Tigers will be the right-hander Duffey. They sport a 45-61 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – Det, O/U – Over
Notes
After last game’s shutout win against the Chicago, the Twins now have 12 shutouts this season. The Tigers have been shut out in eight games this season.
The Twins are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Tigers have a 12-27 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Tigers are 8-54. The Twins have a 15-58 record when opponents outhit them.
Minnesota and Detroit both rank in the bottom half of the league in home runs. Minnesota sits at 17th with 137 home runs this season and Detroit ranks 16th with 140.
Detroit tops the league in hits with 9.42 per game this season. Minnesota ranks in the top half at 13th with 8.30.
Ranking 23rd, Minnesota is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.706). Detroit ranks in the top five at second with an OPS of .756.
When the Tigers allow at least one home run, they are 31-60. When the Twins allow one or more homers, they have a 40-52 record.
