In the first of a three-game series between the Boston Red Sox (72-80) and the Baltimore Orioles (76-76) at Fenway Park, Rich Hill (1-0, 1.93 ERA) and Kevin Gausman (3-6, 4.26 ERA) take the mound. The game starts at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Sep. 25 and will air on NESN and MASN.
In his last start, Hill pitched 7.0 innings, allowing three runs and striking out 10 in a 4-3 victory over the Blue Jays. David Ortiz (.266, 69 Rs, 36 HRs, 101 RBIs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. The Orioles were unsuccessful the last time Gausman pitched. He struggled, going 6.0 innings, allowing four runs, striking out six and walking one in a 7-6 loss to the Rays. Manny Machado (.289, 94 Rs, 30 HRs, 78 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one RBI.
Boston is favored by a small -115 margin in its matchup against Baltimore. Oddsmakers have set the Over/Under (O/U) at nine runs. When playing as the favorite, the Red Sox have a 38-41 record and overall money line at -857. They have a winless record (0-2) in games played as the favorite during their last 10 games.
Switching gears, the Orioles come into this game with a win percentage of .431 when playing as the underdog (31-41) and an overall money line of -459. They have played at the top of their game when rated as the underdog as of late. They managed a 4-1 record when playing as the underdog and an SU record of 7-3. Baltimore’s pitching staff tends to perform poorly when they play division rivals. They’ve allowed an average of 4.7 runs per game against teams from the AL East, higher than their season average of 4.2.
The Orioles have gotten the best of the Red Sox in head-to-head matchups this season, going 11-5. This game will feature Gausman (LHP) on the mound against the Red Sox, who have a 20-23 record when they take on a left-handed starter. The left-handed Hill will take the mound against the Orioles, who have a 22-20 record against lefty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Bos, O/U – Over
Notes
The Orioles won their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Red Sox are 20-19. The Orioles are 24-25 in close games this season.
The Red Sox are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Orioles have a 21-27 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Orioles have a slight leg up on the Red Sox, as the Orioles have won their last three games while the Red Sox have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Orioles are 56-13. The Red Sox have a 57-9 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking ninth in runs, Baltimore has earned 672 this season. Boston ranks third with 703 runs.
Ranking 25th, Baltimore is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 386 this season. Boston ranks in the top half at 14th with 449.
When the Red Sox hit at least one home run, they are 55-44. When the Orioles hit at least one homer, they have a 65-41 record.
