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NFL Betting: Examining The Cleveland Browns Regular Season Win Total

On the “strength” of a 4-12 campaign in 2013, the Cleveland Browns extended their postseason drought to an 11th season. In those 11 years, the Browns have won more than six games just once, which came back in 2007 when they won 10 games yet still managed to miss the playoffs.

But even so, there is a lot of excitement in the city of Cleveland after LeBron James returned to the city’s NBA franchise, the Cavaliers, and the Browns added a star of their own in quarterback Johnny Manziel. If Johnny Football is more than just an off-field star, the Browns franchise could start heading in the right direction.

Strengths

Even with the NFL’s leading receiver, Josh Gordon, facing a lengthy suspension, the Browns appear to be heading in the right direction on offense. The offensive line looks strong, there’s some good talent in the backfield with Ben Tate and rookie Terrance West, there’s a Pro Bowl tight end to work with in Jordan Cameron and the receiving corps has been replenished with Miles Austin, Nate Burleson and Andrew Hawkins. The key to the Browns success will be the quarterbacking. Brian Hoyer looked good in two games before suffering a season-ending injury, so he could be an option. Realistically, the hope is that Johnny Football is a star-in-the-making and he takes the job from Hoyer. If he can do what he did at Texas A&M and elevate the play of everyone around him, the Browns could truly be on the up-and-up.

On defense, the Browns should continue to be strong as new head coach Mike Pettine is known as a defensive guru. The team lost their two top tacklers in D’Qwell Jackson and T.J. Ward, but they put in some work to replace them. Karlos Dansby had a great season in Arizona and will step into an inside-linebacker spot, while Donte Whitner comes in at safety to replace Ward. The secondary could be one of the best unit in the league with Whitner, Joe Haden, Tashaun Gipson and rookie first-round pick Justin Gilbert.

Weaknesses

The Browns have a slew of off-field questions to answer. Manziel is getting far more publicity than a late first-round pick should get and, although his teammates are saying he is diligent in practice, this could create a problem. Some people suspect he’s a ticking time bomb and if he runs into the law or sheriff Roger Goodell, that could send ripple effects through the Browns locker room. And then there is the Gordon situation. The insanely talented receiver has gotten in all sorts of trouble during the offseason and there are rumors that he could miss the entire season for substance abuse issues. It’s likely going to rob the Browns of their best offensive weapon.

Cleveland’s biggest weakness is the culture on the team right now. They’ve been rebuilding since 1999 and they need to advance past that. This is a team that needs leadership in the worst way.

Schedule

Cleveland’s schedule is tied for 26th in difficulty as they open the season at home against Pittsburgh. But they do have a number of beatable teams on the docket like Tennessee, Jacksonville, Oakland and Tampa Bay in four of the five weeks following their Week 4 bye. The closing stretch could be tough with four of their last six on the road at Atlanta, Buffalo, Carolina and Baltimore with visits from Indianapolis and Cincinnati as well.

Outlook

It is too difficult to say that Cleveland will turn it around this season. No one knows who the starting quarterback will be and you have to wonder what Manziel will do. There was so much optimism surrounding this franchise after the draft but the Gordon suspension burst that bubble. There are simply too many wild cards surrounding this team – new coach, the backfield and the quarterback – to bet the over here.

Pick: Under 6.5

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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