In the second of a three-game series between the Miami Marlins (67-87) and the Atlanta Braves (62-92) at Marlins Park, Justin Nicolino (3-4, 4.50 ERA) and Julio Teheran (10-7, 4.20 ERA) get the ball. The Marlins won the last game 12-11 and Miami leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 7:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Sep. 26 and will air on FSFL and FSSO.
In his last start, Nicolino pitched 5.2 innings, giving up seven runs, striking out three and walking two in a 13-3 loss to the Nationals. Justin Bour (.262, 38 Rs, 20 HRs, 66 RBIs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 3 for 5 with two runs, one home run, and three RBIs. The Braves were unsuccessful the last time Teheran pitched. He pitched well, going 8.1 innings, allowing one run, striking out eight and walking one in a 2-1 loss to the Phillies. Freddie Freeman (.283, 61 Rs, 18 HRs, 66 RBIs, 3 SBs) has been doing well offensively for the Braves, going 3 for 4 yesterday with three runs, one home run, and two RBIs.
Miami is a small +104 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is set at seven runs. When playing as the underdog, the Marlins have a 39-58 record and overall money line at -1,319. They have not performed well against their division, earning an SU record of 31-40 and a 17-23 record when they were the underdog. Miami has averaged 4.9 runs per game over the last 10 games, higher than its season average of 3.8. The Marlins rank fifth in the NL in hits with 8.7 per game. They have been a terror on the base paths, ranking fourth in all of baseball with 107 steals. Transitioning to the pitching staff, the Marlins don’t give up many hits to opposing batters, ranking fifth in the NL with only 8.4 hits allowed per game.
Across the field, the Braves have a record of 18-14 when they are favored and are -1,871 overall with the money line. Over the last 10 games, they were unbeaten as the favorite with a perfect 3-0 record and 6-4 SU. The Braves average just 6.9 strikeouts per game, good for least in the NL.
The Braves have mostly come out on top against the Marlins in their previous 17 games this season, earning a 10-7 record. The Marlins will take on a right-hander (Teheran) in this game and have a 54-70 record against right-handed starting pitchers this season. Taking the hill against the Braves will be the right-hander Nicolino. They sport a 51-71 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Under
Notes
The Braves lost their last game by a one-run margin. In games decided by one run, the Marlins are 22-21. The Braves are 27-18 in close games this season.
The Marlins are coming into this matchup after a high-scoring game where they scored a whopping 12 runs. The Braves have a 0-7 record when opponents score that many runs or more.
When they are outhit, the Braves are 11-67. The Marlins have a 14-57 record when opponents outhit them.
Atlanta ranks at the bottom of the league when it comes to home runs, hitting 93 this season. Miami ranks near the bottom at 29th with 114.
Ranking 11th, Atlanta is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.41 per game. Miami ranks in the top five at fifth with 8.67.
Ranking 30th, Atlanta is at the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.675). Miami ranks near the bottom at 25th with an OPS of .694.
When the Braves allow at least one home run, they are 26-69, well-matched with the Marlins who are 29-58 when allowing at least one homer.
