Jake Arrieta (20-6, 1.88 ERA) and the Chicago Cubs (89-65) take on A.J. Burnett (9-5, 3.15 ERA) and the Pittsburgh Pirates (95-60) in a game that has the potential to be low scoring. This is the last of a three-game series at Wrigley Field. The Pirates won the last game 4-0, continuing an eight-game winning streak. Action begins at 8:05 p.m. ET on Sunday, Sep. 27 and can be seen on ESPN.
Arrieta pitched 9.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering zero runs, striking out 11 and walking one in a 4-0 win over the Brewers. Kris Bryant (.280, 86 Rs, 26 HRs, 98 RBIs, 13 SBs) continued his strong play yesterday, going 2 for 3. Burnett went 5.2 innings, surrendering two runs (one unearned), striking out five and walking four in a 9-3 win over the Rockies in his last outing. Andrew McCutchen (.293, 88 Rs, 22 HRs, 95 RBIs, 10 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Chicago, a big -220 favorite, takes on Pittsburgh. The Cubs have recorded an overall money line of +957 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 64-38. Chicago has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 26-15 and 39-30 records as the favorite and SU respectively. Chicago leads the whole NL in walks at home, earning an average of 3.7 per game. Crossing over to the pitching staff, the Cubs are the top team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.18 so far this season. Opponents have consistently been struck out by the Cubs, who lead the NL in strikeouts per game with 8.8.
In games where it is the underdog, Pittsburgh has a 20-25 record and an overall money line of +2,396. They have played poorly as the underdog with an 8-17 record against teams in their division, and an 8-2 record SU. Offensively, the Pirates have really picked up the pace in the last 10 games. They have exceeded their season average of 4.4 runs per game by averaging 5.5 during that stretch. The Pirates allow 3.7 runs per game, but does worse whenever another team from the NL Central Division is on the schedule. They bring that runs allowed average up to 4.2 against division foes. The Pirates have established a reputation of overwhelming hitters with an NL-best 8.2 strikeouts per game, making them one of the top five teams in the league.
The Cubs lead the season series, 10-8. The Cubs have a 71-51 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Burnett takes the mound. Arrieta (RHP) will be on the hill against the Pirates, who have a very good 77-46 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – ChC
Notes
Pittsburgh earned its 12th shutout of the season in its last game. Chicago has been shut out 10 times this season.
Having scored zero runs in their last game, the Cubs are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Pirates have a 12-0 record in games where opponents scored that many runs.
The Pirates are coming into the game with eight consecutive wins, while the Cubs currently have a losing streak of three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Cubs are 61-9. The Pirates have a 68-7 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking 15th in runs, Chicago has earned 655 this season. Pittsburgh ranks 10th with 677 runs.
Ranking 17th, Pittsburgh is in the bottom half of the league in walks, notching 435 this season. Chicago ranks in the top five at third with 536.
When the Cubs hit at least one home run, they are 63-28, well-matched with the Pirates who are 62-28 when hitting one or more homers.
