In the first of a four-game series between the Baltimore Orioles (76-79) and the Toronto Blue Jays (90-65) at Camden Yards, Chris Tillman (10-11, 5.16 ERA) and Marco Estrada (13-8, 3.13 ERA) get the ball. The game gets underway at 7:05 p.m. ET on Monday, Sep. 28 and will air on MASN and RSN.
In his most recent outing, Tillman pitched 6.0 innings, giving up three runs, striking out five and walking three in a 4-3 victory over the Nationals. Manny Machado (.288, 94 Rs, 30 HRs, 78 RBIs, 18 SBs) continued his strong season yesterday, going 2 for 4 with one stolen base. The Blue Jays were unsuccessful to the Yankees 6-4 the last time Estrada pitched. He went 6.2 innings, allowing two runs, striking out three and walking three. Josh Donaldson (.299, 121 Rs, 41 HRs, 122 RBIs, 6 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with two runs, one home run, and one RBI.
Baltimore is a +118 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is eight runs. The Orioles are 32-41 as the underdog and have an overall money line of -563. They are 4-1 as the underdog over their last 10 games. Baltimore has averaged 3.2 runs per game over the last 10 games, lower than its season average of 4.4. The Orioles are a power hitting team with 204 home runs, one of the highest totals in the MLB. Baltimore’s pitchers struggle within their division. The Orioles have given up an average of 4.8 runs to intra-division opponents, well over their defense’s season average of 4.3.
On the other side, the Blue Jays have a nice record of 69-36 when they are favored and are +1,030 overall with the money line. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-3 record when playing as the favorite and an SU record of 7-3. The Blue Jays are the number one overall scoring offense in the AL, averaging 5.5 runs per game so far. The Blue Jays are known for their bats, hitting a league-leading 532 extra base hits. The Blue Jays average 3.5 walks per game, making them the most disciplined team in the AL. Switching gears to Toronto’s pitching staff, they allow just 8.4 hits per game, good for fourth in the AL.
The Blue Jays have mostly come out on top against the Orioles in their previous 15 games this season, earning a 9-6 record. This game will feature Estrada (RHP) on the mound against the Orioles, who have a 54-57 record when they take on a right-handed starter. Taking the hill against the Blue Jays will be the right-hander Tillman. They sport a 69-51 record against righties.
Predictions: SU Winner – Tor, O/U – Over
Notes
In their last game, the Blue Jays won by a margin of one run. The Orioles are 24-25 in one-run games. The Blue Jays have a 14-27 record in close games.
When leading after 7 innings, Toronto is 41-26, while Baltimore is 28-25.
The Blue Jays are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Orioles have a 21-29 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Orioles are 13-60. The Blue Jays have a 13-53 record when opponents outhit them.
Toronto tops the league in home runs with 222 this season. Baltimore ranks in the top five at fourth with 204.
Ranking 12th, Baltimore is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.44 per game. Toronto ranks in the top five at fourth with 9.04.
Toronto tops the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage of .797 this season. Baltimore ranks in the bottom half at 16th with an OPS of .723.
The Blue Jays are 52-46 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Orioles are 43-57 when they allow at least one homer.
