The Southern Methodist Mustangs take on the East Carolina Pirates this week in a game that will feature the AAC’s leading rusher, Matt Davis (397 yards, 6 TDs), and third-leading passer, Blake Kemp (1,011 yards, 7 TDs). Coming into the game, the Mustangs are 1-3 while the Pirates are 2-2. The game will air Saturday, Oct 3 at 4:00 p.m. ET on ESNN.
In last week’s matchup, SMU got nipped by James Madison 48-45. Courtland Sutton had a great game in the loss, grabbing five receptions for 137 yards and one TD. Matt Davis also had a great game with 262 yards and a TD through the air. East Carolina defeated Virginia Tech 35-28 in its matchup. James Summers had a good performance through the air for the Pirates, connecting on five of eight pass attempts for 110 yards and one TD. He added 169 yards and two TDs on 21 carries. Isaiah Jones had 55 receiving yards and a TD on two catches.
The Pirates take on the Mustangs as a six-point favorite this week. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is currently not available.
Even with a subpar Straight Up (SU) record of 1-3, the Mustangs play better than expected, going 3-1 Against The Spread (ATS) so far this year. The SMU’s offense will face a weak Pirates run defense that ranks 116th in the country with 230 rushing yards allowed per game. Turning to the Mustangs defense, there are several areas to keep an eye on. An important aspect of the game will be if the Pirates can fend off SMU’s ability to take the ball away. The Mustangs currently rank 24th in the nation with 2.2 turnovers per game. The Mustangs hope to continue the trend of torching East Carolina’s defense during the first quarter, when they allow 9.5 points per game. Concentration could be a key factor in this week’s game. The Mustangs hope to profit on East Carolina’s mental lapses, which contributes to 77 penalty yards per game.
In the other locker room, the Pirates head into Week 5 with records of 2-2 both ATS and SU. Chances are East Carolina will rely on its passing attack against a defense that allows 323.5 passing yards per game, ranking 122nd in the nation. It might not be too hard for the Pirates to start fast this week with SMU’s defense allowing 13.8 points in the first quarter.
Predictions: SU Winner – Southern Methodist, ATS Winner – Southern Methodist
Notes
Southern Methodist is 2-16 SU in its last 18 games.
Southern Methodist is 1-9 SU in its last 10 games at home.
Southern Methodist is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home.
East Carolina is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games on the road.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of East Carolina’s last 5 games on the road.
East Carolina is 2-0 SU when leading after three quarters this season.
Since the beginning of last year, East Carolina is 5-3 SU against AAC opponents, while SMU is just 1-7 SU against conference foes.
East Carolina also seems to have an advantage in the passing game when comparing just conference ratings. Its offensive passing game (ranked fifth in the AAC) will face the seventh-ranked pass defense of SMU, while its fifth-ranked pass defense will look to control the seventh-ranked aerial attack of the Mustangs.
When analyzing just conference ratings, SMU has the advantage in the run game. Its fourth-ranked rushing attack will face the ninth-ranked rush defense of East Carolina, while its fourth-ranked run defense will look to contain the ninth-ranked run game of the Pirates.
