Aaron Harang (6-15, 4.86 ERA) and Justin Nicolino (4-4, 4.16 ERA) take the hill in the first of a three-game series between the Philadelphia Phillies (62-97) and the Miami Marlins (69-90) at Citizens Bank Park. Action begins at 7:05 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 2 and can be seen on FSFL and CSPh.
Harang pitched 6.0 innings in his most recent start, surrendering two runs, striking out two and walking one in a 12-5 defeat to the Nationals. Ryan Howard (.229, 53 Rs, 23 HRs, 77 RBIs) went 1 for 3 yesterday with one run, one home run, and one RBI. Nicolino went 7.0 innings, surrendering one run and walking three in a 6-2 win over the Braves in his last outing.
Miami takes on Philadelphia as a -119 favorite. The Over/Under (O/U) for the matchup is sitting at eight runs. The Phillies have recorded an overall money line of -723 and have shown a weak performance as an underdog this season with a record of 55-89. Philadelphia has had a discouraging season against division opponents, earning records of 24-41 and 29-44 as the underdog and SU respectively. Philadelphia’s pitching staff has been doing better against opposing offenses during the last 10 games, only allowing an average of 2.6 runs per game, well under their season average of 5.0.
In games where it is the favorite, Miami has a 29-29 record and an overall money line of -1,311. They played solid baseball as the favorite over their last 10 games with a 4-1 record, and a 5-5 record SU. The Marlins are tough outs for opponents, ranking fifth in the NL with 8.8 hits per game. The Marlins are an excellent base stealing team with 110 stolen bases, ranking fourth in the MLB. The Marlins allow 4.2 runs per game, but have damaged those numbers in the past 10 games, allowing 5.5 runs per game during that span.
The Phillies lead the season series, 9-7. The Phillies have a 47-76 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Nicolino takes the mound. Harang (RHP) will be on the hill against the Marlins, who have a 56-70 record against right-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – Mia, O/U – Over
Notes
After last game’s shutout win against the New York, the Phillies now have seven shutouts this season. The Marlins have been shut out in 12 games this season.
The Phillies are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Marlins have a 23-43 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
It looks like the Phillies have a slight leg up on the Marlins, as the Phillies have won their last four games while the Marlins have lost their last three.
When they outhit their opponents, the Marlins are 50-22. The Phillies have a 38-16 record when outhitting opponents.
Philadelphia and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in runs. Philadelphia sits at 28th with 611 runs this season and Miami ranks 29th with 599.
Philadelphia and Miami both rank near the bottom of the league in walks. Philadelphia sits at 28th with 376 this season and Miami ranks 29th with 369.
When the Phillies hit at least one home run, they are 43-44. When the Marlins hit at least one homer, they have a 43-42 record.
