Jake Arrieta (21-6, 1.82 ERA), seeking his 200th strikeout of the season, gets the start for the Chicago Cubs (94-65) as they go up against Ariel Pena (2-0, 3.91 ERA) and the Milwaukee Brewers (68-91) in the first of a three-game series at Miller Park. The Cubs go into this series looking to continue a five-game winning streak. The game starts at 8:10 p.m. ET on Friday, Oct. 2 and will air on CSCh and FSWI.
In his last start, Pena pitched 5.0 innings, allowing three runs, striking out five and walking one in a 4-3 loss to the Cardinals. The Cubs were victorious the last time Arrieta pitched. He pitched well, going 7.0 innings, allowing zero runs and striking out nine in a 4-0 victory over the Pirates. Anthony Rizzo (.277, 92 Rs, 30 HRs, 96 RBIs, 17 SBs) went 1 for 4 yesterday with one RBI.
Milwaukee is a heavy +193 underdog in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is seven runs. The Brewers are 42-60 as the underdog and have an overall money line of -1,819. They have not performed well against their division, earning a SU record of 31-42 and a 23-32 record when they were the underdog.
Switching to the opposing bench, the Cubs come into this game with a solid win percentage of .645 when playing as the favorite (69-38) and an overall money line of +1,457. They have played at the top of their game when rated as favorite recently. They managed a 7-2 record when playing as the favorite and a SU record of 7-3. They sport the second-ranked offense in the NL, averaging four runs per game. The Cubs average 3.5 walks per game, making them the most disciplined team in the NL. Chicago’s pitching staff has allowed an average of 2.3 runs per game during the last 10 games, lower than their season average of 3.8. They have a WHIP of 1.16, best in the MLB. They also have some of the most overpowering arms in baseball with an NL-high 8.8 strikeouts per game.
The Cubs have gotten the best of the Brewers in head-to-head matchups this season, going 11-5. This game will feature Arrieta (RHP) on the mound against the Brewers, who have a 49-70 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Pena will take the mound against the Cubs, who have a 75-51 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – ChC, O/U – Over
Notes
For the 27th time this season, the Cubs registered at least two errors in a game.
Having scored one run in their last game, the Brewers are going to have to up their game if they want to win this matchup. The Cubs have a 37-1 record in games where opponents scored that many runs or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Brewers are 12-70. The Cubs have an 18-46 record when opponents outhit them.
Milwaukee ranks in the bottom half of the league at 20th when it comes to home runs, hitting 144 this season. Chicago ranks in the top half at 11th with 170.
Ranking 14th, Chicago is in the top half of the league in hits, notching 8.26 per game. Milwaukee ranks in the top 10 at seventh with 8.62.
Ranking 23rd, Milwaukee is near the bottom of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.708). Chicago ranks in the bottom half at 19th with an OPS of .722.
The Cubs are 42-42 in games where they allow one or more home runs. The Brewers are 38-66 when they allow at least one homer.
