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Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Free Pick 09/04/18

Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports

The Tampa Bay Rays will be taking on their divisional rival Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. Fox Sports Sun will showcase the matchup and the game will get going at 7:07 p.m. ET.

Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Odds

The Blue Jays are 62-75 straight up (SU) and 57-80 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 11.3 units for moneyline bettors and 33.9 units (ATS). The Rays are 74-63 SU and have gone 76-61 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 18.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 16.2 units ATS.

Toronto games have a 71-58-8 over/under record in 2018. The Rays have been a great under bet with a total record of 58-74-5.

Ryne Stanek will get the nod for the visiting Rays. The right-handed Stanek is 2-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 68 strikeouts. He’s 0-0 with six strikeouts and a 0.00 ERA against Toronto this year (three starts).

The Blue Jays will put the ball in the left hand of Ryan Borucki (3-3, 4.52 ERA, 1.54 WHIP), who’s got 40 strikeouts and 21 walks. Borucki has yet to face the Rays this year and did not pitch in the majors in 2017.

As a unit, Toronto’s pitchers have given up 5.2 runs per game overall this year. The team’s starting pitching staff has a 5.26 ERA, 1.46 WHIP and 7.6 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a 4.39 ERA, 1.35 WHIP and 9.0 K/9. In 58 games against AL East foes, Blue Jays starters have an ERA of 5.08 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.94.

The Toronto offense is putting up 4.5 runs per contest, including 3.9 per game against divisional foes and 4.2 per game over its last five. The team has hit .233/.309/.411 over its last five matchups and is 2-3 SU during that span.

First baseman Justin Smoak and right fielder Kevin Pillar have paced the Blue Jays’ batters this year. Smoak is hitting .248/.355/.472 with 23 home runs, 70 RBIs and 60 runs scored, while Pillar’s line is .251/.280/.414 with 11 homers, 51 RBIs, 54 runs and 13 steals.

In the visiting dugout, Tampa Bay’s pitching staff allowed 3.9 runs per game and its starters own a 3.63 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 9.33 K/9. The bullpen has logged an ERA of 3.70, along with a WHIP of 1.17.

Rays hitters have slashed .257/.332/.399 on their way to 4.2 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 5.2 per game over the team’s last five contests (4-1 SU).

Third baseman Matt Duffy and second baseman Joey Wendle have led Tampa Bay’s hitters. Duffy is hitting .299/.356/.375 with four home runs, 39 RBIs and 50 runs scored. Wendle (.302/.350/.432) is up to seven homers, 49 RBIs, 49 runs and 12 stolen bases.

The Rays have gained 8.6 units and are 23-16 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 13 of those games, as opposed to 24 that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Blue Jays have netted 6.1 units and are 39-52 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in 48 of those games, compared to 39 that’ve cashed the under.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays MLB Tip

Predictions: SU Winner – Blue Jays, ATS Winner – Rays, O/U – UNDER

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Notes

Betting Trends

The under has hit in just two of Tampa Bay’s last seven games.

Toronto has posted 19.9 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19.4 over its last five.

The Rays have hit nine home runs in their last 10 games, including six over their last five.

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Written by GMS Previews

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