Jeremy Hellickson (9-11, 4.60 ERA) and the Arizona Diamondbacks (78-82) go up against Collin McHugh (18-7, 3.98 ERA) and the Houston Astros (85-75) in the second of a three-game interleague series at Chase Field. The Astros won the last game 21-5 and Houston leads the series 1-0. The game gets underway at 8:10 p.m. ET on Saturday, Oct. 3 and will air on FSAZ and RTSW.
In his most recent outing, Hellickson pitched 6.0 innings, giving up one run, striking out five and walking two in a 3-0 loss to the Padres. Paul Goldschmidt (.317, 100 Rs, 31 HRs, 107 RBIs, 21 SBs) went 1 for 3 yesterday. The Astros were victorious over the Rangers 9-7 the last time McHugh pitched. He went 6.2 innings, allowing four runs, striking out six and walking one. Carlos Correa (.282, 52 Rs, 22 HRs, 67 RBIs, 13 SBs) has been hitting the ball well for the Astros, going 3 for 4 yesterday with four runs, one home run, four RBIs, and one stolen base.
Arizona, a +146 underdog, will look to capitalize at home against Houston. The teams combine to set the Over/Under (O/U) at eight runs. When playing as the underdog, the Diamondbacks have a 42-52 record and overall money line at +109. They have performed well against the AL to earn a SU record of 10-8 and a 7-4 record when they were the underdog. The Diamondbacks are a nightmare for opponents on the bases with 131 steals, one of the highest totals in baseball. Whenever an American League opponent shows up on the calendar, the Diamondbacks seem to struggle with pitching. They allow an average of 4.4 runs per game, but allow 5.3 against teams from the AL.
Across the field, the Astros have a record of 55-44 when they are favored and are -245 overall with the money line. Interleague competitors haven’t been able to get the upper hand on fiery Houston. The Astros hold a record of 8-2 in games where they were ranked as the favorite and a 15-3 SU. The Astros rank third in the AL in road scoring, averaging four runs per game. The Astros are known for their bats, hitting 524 extra base hits. Houston is a terror on the base paths, ranking third in the MLB with 117 stolen bases. Playing competition from the NL really brings the best out of the Houston pitchers. They allow 3.1 runs per game against teams in the NL, which is lower than their season average of 3.8. They have a WHIP of 1.20, fifth best in the MLB.
In their previous four games this season, the Astros have a 3-1 record. This game will feature McHugh (RHP) on the mound against the Diamondbacks, who have a 59-59 record when they take on a right-handed starter. The right-handed Hellickson will take the mound against the Astros, who have a 54-46 record against righty starters this season.
Predictions: SU Winner – Hou, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona’s last 6 games.
Arizona is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games.
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 5 games when playing Houston.
Arizona is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Houston.
Arizona is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Houston.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona’s last 7 games when playing at home against Houston.
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Houston.
In their last game, the Astros won by a margin of 16 runs. The Diamondbacks are 3-2 in games decided by a margin of 10 runs or more. The Astros have a 7-1 record in blowouts.
When leading after 7 innings, Houston is 40-27, while Arizona is 31-28.
When they are outhit, the Astros are 14-53. The Diamondbacks have a 15-53 record when opponents outhit them.
Ranking 17th in home runs, Arizona has hit 151 this season. Houston ranks second with 227 home runs.
Arizona ranks at the top of the league when it comes to hits with 9.22 per game this season. Houston ranks in the top half at 13th with 8.38.
Ranking seventh, Arizona is in the top 10 of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.741). Houston ranks in the top five at second with an OPS of .752.
When the Astros allow at least one home run, they are 34-53, well-matched with the Diamondbacks who are 37-69 when allowing at least one homer.
