The Cincinnati Reds are set to square off against their divisional rival Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. The game gets going at 7:05 p.m. ET and the matchup will be televised on both ATPT and FSOH.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Odds
Vegas has listed Pittsburgh (-205) as the favorite over Cincinnati (+187). The total sits at 8.5 runs and bettors can take the over for -105 and the under for -115. The game’s runline odds sit at -115 for taking the Reds +1.5 runs and -105 for the Pirates -1.5 runs.
The Reds have gone 59-80 SU this year and are 78-60 against the spread (ATS). They’ve lost 7.6 units for moneyline bettors, despite having gained 4.0 units ATS. Cincinnati has covered the spread five times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven. The Pirates, on the other hand, are 68-71 SU and 66-72 ATS. They’ve lost 4.0 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 13.3 units ATS. Pittsburgh has a 3-4 ATS record over its last seven games and the total has gone under in six of those seven.
Pirates games have had an over/under record of 61-68-9 in 2018. Cincinnati has been a decent over bet with a total record of 71-63-4.
The right-handed Homer Bailey is projected to start for the visiting Reds. Bailey is 1-13 with a 6.13 ERA and 71 strikeouts. He’s 0-1 with five strikeouts and a 7.45 ERA against Pittsburgh this year (two starts).
The Pirates are turning to righty Jameson Taillon (11-9, 3.45 ERA), who has 146 strikeouts and 40 walks as well as a 1.20 WHIP. Taillon is 2-1 with 21 strikeouts and a 3.10 ERA across three starts against Cincinnati this year.
Cincinnati’s pitching staff allowed 5.2 runs per game and its starters own a 5.20 ERA, 1.45 WHIP and 7.58 K/9. The bullpen has an ERA of 4.22, along with a WHIP of 1.45 and a K/9 of 8.00.
Reds hitters have slashed .258/.335/.406 on their way to 4.5 runs scored per game in 2018, including 4.1 runs per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over the team’s last five outings (2-3 SU).
Second baseman Scooter Gennett and shortstop Jose Peraza continue to lead Cincinnati’s hitters. Gennett is hitting .322/.369/.515 with 22 home runs, 84 RBIs and 82 runs scored, while Peraza is hitting .283 with nine homers, 45 RBIs, 73 runs and 20 steals.
In the other dugout, Pittsburgh’s pitchers have allowed 4.3 runs per game overall this season. Its starters have an ERA of 4.05, a WHIP of 1.27 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 7.3. The bullpen has a 4.01 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. In 59 games against divisional foes, Pirates starters have an ERA of 3.42 and the bullpen’s ERA is 3.26.
The Pittsburgh hitters are putting up 4.3 runs per outing, including 4.5 per game against divisional foes and 3.8 per game over their last five. The team has hit .235/.262/.346 over its last five games and is 3-2 SU during that span.
The Pirates’ offense has been led by outfielders Starling Marte and Corey Dickerson. Marte is slashing .278/.323/.458 with 18 home runs, 63 RBIs, 70 runs and 30 steals, while Dickerson’s line sits at .291/.320/.453 with 11 homers, 46 RBIs and 54 runs.
The Reds have lost 11.6 units and are 55-46 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in 50 of those games, compared to 48 that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Pirates have netted 3.8 units and are 49-50 ATS when facing a righty starter. The over’s cashed in 38 of those games, compared to 53 that went under the total.
Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates Free Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Pirates, ATS Winner – Reds, O/U – OVER
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Notes
Betting Trends
Cincinnati has tallied 15 extra-base hits over its last five outings. Pittsburgh has 10 XBH over its last five.
Pittsburgh has posted 20 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 outings and 19 over its last five.
The Reds have hit 14 home runs in their last 10 games. The Pirates have hit seven over their last 10.
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