Most people who bet on NFL games like to consider home-field advantage when they are handicapping games. While it is widely believed that oddsmakers simply give three points to home teams when they set the lines, this isn’t necessarily true. They assign different values based on a number of things.
There are a number of ways to determine how much of a home-field advantage certain teams have. One way that gives you a bit of statistical insight is comparing their home performances to their road performances in terms of overall records, winning margins, and how they compare when it comes to betting against the spread. Here is a look at the teams that have the best and worst home-field advantages in the NFL from a betting point of view.
Best Home-Field Advantages
Miami Dolphins
You might find it hard to believe this but the Miami Dolphins have a very good home-field advantage. As a home team, Miami went 4-3 (remember they had a neutral-site game) and put up an average winning margin of 3.3 points. Those might be pedestrian numbers but they also happened to cover the spread by an average of 5.4 points. On the road, Miami was 2-6 and they lost by an average of 14.4 points while failing to cover the spread by an average of 7.6 points. This means that the Dolphins were 17.7 points better at home and they covered by an average of 13 points more.
Minnesota Vikings
What a year for the Vikings. They were especially tough at home where they went 8-1 including the playoffs. The margin of victory at home was 11.4 points and they covered the spread by an average of seven points per game. Their numbers were quite different when they were playing on the road. They went 5-3, had a two-point margin of defeat, and fell an average of 3.3 points shy of covering the spread. This means that they were 13.4 points better at home than they were on the road. As far as covering spreads goes, Minnesota was 10.3 points better at home. Home-field advantage doesn’t get much better than that.
Philadelphia Eagles
Including their playoff run which culminated in a Super Bowl title, the Philadelphia Eagles went 9-1 at home and their margin of victory was a whopping 15.8 points. They also covered the spread by an average of 10.7 points. As a road team, they went 6-2 and their margin of victory was five points. They covered the spread by an average of 3.9 points. So, Philadelphia was 10 points better at home straight up and 6.8 points better ATS.
Los Angeles Chargers
Even though the Chargers went just 5-3 in their home games, they managed to put up a margin of victory of 9.9 points while they covered the spread by an average of 5.5 points. Now, compare that to their road record of 4-4, in which their margin of victory was just half a point and they covered the spread by 2.1 points. Los Angeles was 9.4 points better at home and they covered by an average of 3.4 more points at home. Those certainly aren’t overwhelming stats but they are enough to give them one of the league’s best home-field advantages.
New York Jets
The Jets certainly stunk it up in 2017, but they stunk far less when they played at home. They finished the season with a 4-4 record at home in which their average margin of victory was just 1.2 points. However, they managed to cover spreads by an average of 6.9 points. These guys were terrible on the road finishing 1-7 and losing by an average of 11.8 points. They also fell an average of 4.8 points shy of covering. This made New York 13 points better at home overall and six points better against the spread.
Worst Home-Field Advantages
Los Angeles Rams
It may surprise you to learn that the Rams were just 3-5 at home and they had a margin of victory of 1.8 points. They also fell an average of 1.3 points short of covering the spreads. They were a completely different team on the road where they racked up a 7-1 record in which the average margin of victory was 11.4 points. They also covered the spreads by 9.2 points. This all means that the Rams were 9.6 points worse at home overall and 10.5 points worse against the spread. Home-field is definitely no advantage to the Rams.
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens had a respectable 5-3 record at home in 2017 in which their average margin of victory was 8.5 points and they covered by an average of three points. As a road team, the Ravens were 4-3 (neutral site game) and won by an average of 8.7 points. Well, that’s not such a big difference from their home stats. However, against the spread, Baltimore covered by an average of 10.2 points. While the 0.2 difference in margins between home and away wins is negligible, they were an average of 7.2 points better against the spread on the road.
Seattle Seahawks
Yep. It’s true. The Seahawks had one of the worst home-field advantages in 2017. They went 4-4 and their average margin of victory was just 0.6 points while falling an average of 4.7 points short of covering. When they went on the road, Seattle went 5-3 winning their games by an average of 3.6 points. They also covered the spread by an average of 3.2 points.
New York Giants
They were terrible at home and they were awful on the road. It’s just that they were even worse at home from a betting standpoint. The Giants won just two home games in 2017 and their margin of victory was 10.5 while they failed to cover by an average of 6.8 points. Their 1-7 road record was also pretty grim but they only lost by an average of 7.2 points while failing to cover by an average of 1.8 points.
Dallas Cowboys
Dallas might have made the playoffs in 2017 if they had a better home-field advantage. As it was, Dallas was 3-5 at home, losing by an average of 2.1 points while failing to cover the spread by an average of 3.6 points. It too bad for Dallas fans that they didn’t play more road games where they went 6-2 and won by an average of 4.9 points while covering by an average of 2.1 points.
