The South Florida Bulls (-9.5) are heading neutral to battle the Illinois Fighting Illini at Soldier Field. Big Ten Network owns the TV rights and kickoff will take place at 3:30 p.m. ET.
South Florida Bulls at Illinois Fighting Illini Betting Preview
Illinois is a significant underdog in this game and is currently receiving 9.5 points. The Bulls are also receiving -370 moneyline odds while the Fighting Illini are +290. If one squad can find paydirt early, it will likely produce a solid betting opportunity in-game.
This game’s line initially opened at 8 but the public has been siding with the Bulls.
Each of these teams has rewarded gamblers this year as the Bulls have recorded 1.6 units and the Fighting Illini are up 2.0 units.
The Bulls have gone 2-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Fighting Illini are also 2-0 SU.
These two programs met last year with the final result being a 47-23 win for South Florida.
The Bulls are looking to stay undefeated following a 49-38 win over Georgia Tech last week. Blake Barnett completed 21-of-31 passes for 207 yards, two scores and one interception. Barnett (86 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) also spearheaded the ground attack and was complemented by Duran Bell Jr. (69 yards on 12 carries, one TD). Tyre McCants (10 receptions, 104 yards) and Randall St. Felix (three catches, 23 yards) shared the receiving duties in the win.
Illinois just put together a 34-14 win over Western Illinois. As a group, the team collectively completed 14-of-23 passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns. M.J. Rivers II went nine-for-16 for 105 yards and two touchdowns while AJ Bush was five-of-seven for 33 yards. Reggie Corbin (63 yards on 15 rush attempts, one TD) led the running game while Sam Mays (four receptions, 42 yards) and Trenard Davis (four catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
South Florida’s run the ball on 51.3 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Illinois has an overall rush percentage of 67.1 percent. The Bulls have produced 184 rush yards/game and have four touchdowns on the ground this year. The Fighting Illini are totaling 259 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Fighting Illini should hold an edge when it comes to RB efficiency, as their running backs has produced 5.4 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 3.9 to opponents. The Bulls have ran for 4.5 yards per carry while allowing 5.8 yards per rush attempt to opponents.
The Bulls offensive scheme has tallied 287 yards per contest through the air overall and has five passing scores so far. The Fighting Illini have produced 164 pass yards per game and have two total pass TDs.
South Florida appears to possess an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to run for an average of 306 yards and pass for 113 yards per game. The Illinois D has allowed 282.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 124.5 yards per game on the ground. The Bulls are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 1.09 to opposing QBs, while the Fighting Illini have given up a 5.11 ANY/A.
Offensively, Barnett is up to 207 passing yards this season, and has connected on 68 percent of his 31 attempts with two scores through the air and one interception. He’s got a 5.82 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 8.15 over the last two outings.
Look for Barnett to attack all areas of the Illinois secondary. Randall St. Felix (0 receiving yards), Tyre McCants (104 yards) and Blake Barnett (0 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.
AJ Bush has completed 5-of-7 passes for 33 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs for Illinois. His ANY/A stands at a terrible 3.13 for the season and 5.79 across his past two games.
We’re looking for Fighting Illini to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. AJ Bush (zero receiving yards) has chipped in lately, but Reggie Corbin (63 rush yards, one rush TD) and Mike Epstein (105 rush yards) have really been key factors in the Illinois offense.
Betting Prediction: South Florida Bulls vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
SU Winner – South Florida, ATS Winner – South Florida
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Notes
Betting Trends
The Bulls offense has produced three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Fighting Illini have accounted for one such play.
Both teams have allowed one pass play of 40 or more yards. The South Florida defense has given up one pass play of 30+ yards while Illinois has yielded two such plays.
The South Florida offense has created one rushing play of 20 or more yards, while Illinois has created seven such runs.
The Bulls defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Fighting Illini have given up three such runs.
The South Florida defense has five sacks on the year while Illinois has four.
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