The No. 18 UCF Knights (-14.5) and North Carolina Tar Heels will go head-to-head on the grass of Kenan Memorial Stadium. This afternoon matchup is scheduled to get underway at 12:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU will broadcast the action.
UCF Knights vs. North Carolina Tar Heels Betting Preview
North Carolina is projected as the underdog and is currently getting 14.5 points in this Saturday game. The Knights are also receiving -750 moneyline odds while the Tar Heels are +510. If one side can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely create a worthwhile in-game betting opportunity.
The line initially opened at 14 but the early action has leaned to the Knights.
The Knights have recorded 0.0 units so far and are 1-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has recorded an O/U mark of 1-1. The disappointing Tar Heels have lost 9.4 units this season. They’re 0-1-1 ATS and also have an O/U record of 1-1.
The Knights are 2-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Tar Heels are 0-2 SU.
The Knights are looking to remain unbeaten after a 38-0 victory over South Carolina State last week. The passing attack was messy as McKenzie Milton completed just 21 passes on 39 attempts for 243 yards, one touchdown and three interceptions. Taj McGowan (33 rushing yards on nine attempts) spearheaded the ground attack while Gabriel Davis (nine receptions, 111 yards, one TD) and Dredrick Snelson (five catches, 45 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.
North Carolina just dropped a brutal 41-19 game to East Carolina. As a group, the team collectively completed 25-of-44 passes for 234 yards. Nathan Elliott went 22-for-38 for 219 yards while Cade Fortin was three-of-six for 15 yards. Jordon Brown (59 yards on 13 rush attempts, one TD) and Antonio Williams (96 yards on 6 carries) spearheaded the running game while Thomas Jackson (four receptions, 14 yards) and Anthony Ratliff-Williams (four catches, 84 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the loss.
UCF’s run the ball on 51.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while North Carolina has a rush percentage of 44.4 percent. The Knights have produced 306 rush yards/game and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Heels are logging 163 rush yards per game and have two total rushing TDs.
The Knights offensive scheme has averaged 303 yards through the air overall and has six passing scores so far. The Heels have produced 186 pass yards per outing and have just one pass TDs.
UCF seems to have an edge when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 199 yards and throw for 173 yards per game. The North Carolina defense has allowed 204.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 190.0 yards per game on the ground. The Knights are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 2.63 to opponents, while the Heels have given up a 5.9 ANY/A.
Passing-wise, Milton is up to 243 yards this season. He’s connected on 54 percent of his 39 attempts with one passing scores and three interceptions. Milton’s got a 3.28 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.08 over the past two games.
Adrian Killins Jr., Tre Nixon and Gabriel Davis have combined for 481 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over the last two outings.
In the other huddle, Nathan Elliott has connected on 22-of-38 passes for 219 yards, zero TDs and zero INTs. Elliott’s ANY/A stands at 5.76 for the season and 2.68 over his last two outings.
We’re thinking the Heels will control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Anthony Ratliff-Williams (84 receiving yards this season), Antonio Williams (96 rush yards) and Jordon Brown (59 rush yards, one rush TD, 26 receiving yards) have been focal points in the North Carolina offense.
Free Pick: UCF Knights at North Carolina Tar Heels
SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – UCF
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
Both teams have yet to lose a fumble in 2018
The North Carolina defensive unit has registered five sacks on the year while UCF has four.
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