The Indiana Hoosiers (4-1, 0-1) travel to play the Penn State Nittany Lions (4-1, 1-0) this week in a matchup between two of the better Big 10 teams in the league to start the year. The nation’s fifth-leading rusher, Jordan Howard (709 yards, 4 TDs), will have a major impact on this contest. It will begin Saturday, Oct 10 at 12:00 p.m. ET.
Penn State beat Army West Point 20-14 last week. Mike Gesicki had a good game in the win, registering one reception for 33 yards and one TD. Chris Godwin finished with 66 receiving yards on four receptions. Indiana didn’t have the same success as Penn State, falling to Ohio State 34-27. Zander Diamont had a solid game passing the ball for the Hoosiers, completing six of 14 passes for 76 yards. He added 98 yards and a TD on seven attempts. Simmie Cobbs added 68 receiving yards on four receptions.
Penn State is an eight-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is currently unavailable.
Despite a 4-1 Straight Up (SU) record this season, the Nittany Lions have not fared well Against The Spread (ATS) with a 2-3 record. The Nittany Lions may capitalize on a fragile Hoosiers pass defense that allows 13.9 yards per pass. As for the Penn State defense, there are important areas to keep an eye on. Penn State is opportunistic in its run defense, allowing only 3.2 yards per rush. The Nittany Lions could be able to pounce on Indiana’s struggles during the second quarter, when they give up 13 points per game. Indiana will want to stay focused this week to avoid giving the game away to the Nittany Lions. The Hoosiers are one of the most penalized teams in the nation with eight flags per game.
On the other side, the Hoosiers have 4-1 SU and ATS records this season. The Hoosiers rely heavily on their run game, averaging 52 rushing attempts per game. Switching gears to the Indiana defense, there are certain areas where it measures up well against the Nittany Lions. The Hoosiers need to capitalize on opportunities against the porous pass protection of Penn State, which ranks 109th in the country in sacks allowed with three per game. The Hoosiers usually get a boost in the third quarter, when they average 11.6 points this year. With an average of 133 return yards per game (11th-most in the country), Indiana has had a great deal of success with its special teams.
Predictions: SU Winner – Penn State, ATS Winner – Indiana
Notes
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State’s last 5 games.
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home.
Penn State is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Indiana.
Penn State is 15-1 SU in its last 16 games when playing Indiana.
Penn State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana.
Each team is 4-0 SU when leading after three quarters.
