The Troy Trojans (-6.5) are set to face off against their conference counterpart Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks at JPS Field at James L. Malone Stadium. The game is scheduled to kick off at 7:00 p.m. ET and interested parties can watch the action on ESPN+.
Troy Trojans vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks Betting Preview
Louisiana-Monroe is playing the role of underdog and is currently getting 6.5 points in this Saturday SBC game. The Trojans are also receiving -270 moneyline odds while the Warhawks are +210. If one squad can get out in front early it will generate a worthwhile in-game betting scenario. Oddsmakers have set the over/under (O/U) at 62 points.
This game’s line opened at 7, while the over/under has yet to move after it was initially set at 62.
Each team has rewarded gamblers this year as the Trojans have gained 2.1 units while the Warhawks are ahead 1.9 units.
The Trojans have gone 2-1 straight up (SU) and they haven’t faced any SBC competition yet. The Warhawks are 2-1 SU overall and are also 0-0 SU in conference play.
The Trojans are coming off a 24-19 victory over Nebraska last week where Kaleb Barker completed 14-of-21 passes for just 110 yards and one interception. B.J. Smith (70 yards on 11 rush attempts, two TDs) led the running attack in the win. Tray Eafford (four receptions, 33 yards) and Deondre Douglas (four catches, six yards) handled the receiving duties.
Louisiana-Monroe just lost an ugly 48-10 game to Texas A&M. The team’s defense allowed the Aggies to kill the clock by running for 281 yards on 45 rush attempts, including four rush TDs. Trayveon Williams put up a productive showing, recording 128 rushing yards and a score on 22 attempts for Texas A&M. For Louisiana-Monroe, Caleb Evans completed 15-of-28 passes for 225 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Evans (23 yards on 11 rush attempts) spearheaded the ground game in the defeat as Marcus Green (four receptions, 75 yards) and RJ Turner (four catches, 38 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps.
Troy has run the ball on 56.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisiana-Monroe has a rush percentage of 48.3 percent. The Trojans have produced 186 rush yards/game and have six touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Warhawks are putting up 157 rushing yards per game and have two total rush TDs.
If 2018 numbers can translate to this game, then the Warhawks might have the more disruptive lines up front, since their offensive line has given up only four sacks while the D-line has logged nine sacks. The Trojans offensive line has allowed 11 sacks and their defense has recorded only seven sacks.
The Trojans offensive scheme has logged 183 yards/contest through the air overall and has six passing TDs so far. The Warhawks have put up 255 pass yards per game and have five total pass scores.
Defensively, Troy should have the upper hand in both phases. The team has let opponents run for an average of 122 yards and throw for 234 yards per game. The Louisiana-Monroe defense has allowed 330.7 yards per game to opposing passers and 137.0 yards per game to opposing runners. The Trojans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 6.42 to opposing QBs, while the Warhawks have given up a 7.59 ANY/A.
Offensively, Barker is up to 321 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 68 percent of his 50 attempts with one passing scores and two interceptions. Barker’s got a 3.24 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 5.40 over the past two outings.
Caleb Evans has connected on 50-of-81 passes for 571 yards, three TDs and two INTs for Louisiana-Monroe. His ANY/A stands at 6.21 for the season and 6.28 over his past two outings.
These two SBC foes did not get a chance to play each other a year ago.
NCAA Pick: Troy Trojans vs. Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks
SU Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, ATS Winner – Louisiana-Monroe, O/U – Under
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Louisiana-Monroe defensive unit has sacked opposing QBs nine times this season. Troy has recorded seven sacks.
Louisiana-Monroe has lost two fumbles this season while the Troy offense has lost four.
The Trojans offense has created zero pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Warhawks have put up three such plays.
The Troy defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while Louisiana-Monroe has given up two such plays.
The Troy offense has created eight rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while Louisiana-Monroe has created two such runs.
The Trojans defense has allowed five rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Warhawks have given up three such runs.
Louisiana-Monroe was favored by 28 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 65.5. The under cashed and Louisiana-Monroe did not cover in the team’s 48-10 defeat to Texas A&M.
Over its last three contests, Troy is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Troy was favored by 11 points in its last game and the Over/Under was 55. The under cashed and Troy was not able to cover in the 24-19 victory over Nebraska.
Troy has averaged 5.8 yards per carry over its last two outings.
Louisiana-Monroe has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over its last two.
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