Look for many passing attempts from Marcus Mariota in this game as the Tennessee Titans (1-2) face a Buffalo Bills (2-2) team that can defend the running game better than the passing game. The game will begin Sunday, Oct 11 at 1:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on CBS.
Tennessee lost a close one to Indianapolis 35-33 in its last game. Marcus Mariota had a big game throwing the ball in the loss, completing 27 of 44 passes for 367 yards, two TDs and two interceptions. Kendall Wright also had a big game with 95 yards and a TD on seven receptions. Buffalo also fell short, getting beat by New York 24-10. Charles Clay had an outstanding performance for the Bills, totaling nine catches for 111 yards.
Buffalo is a three-point favorite in this game and the Over/Under (O/U) is 42 points.
Despite a 1-2 Straight Up (SU) record this season, the Titans have fared well Against The Spread (ATS) with a 2-1 record. Look for Tennessee to take advantage of an inferior Buffalo pass defense, which ranks 29th in the league with 297.8 passing yards allowed per game. Keep an eye on Tennessee to turn it up during the third quarter, when it averages 10.3 points per game. Buffalo will want to avoid costly mistakes against the Titans. The Bills lead the league in penalties with 11.8 per game.
Compared to the Titans, the Bills have 2-2 SU and ATS records this season. The Bills are the best in the league at stopping their opponents’ passing game, allowing a completion rate of 57.3%. The Titans need to recognize the importance of ball security against the turnover-minded Bills. The defense ranks fourth in the league in turnovers with 2.2 per game. The Bills don’t waste time early in the game, averaging 7.8 points in the first quarter this year. Special teams is an area of weakness for the Titans, giving up 126.7 return yards per game.
Predictions: SU Winner – Buf, ATS Winner – Ten, O/U – Over
Notes
Tennessee is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games.
Tennessee is 5-17-2 ATS in its last 24 games.
Tennessee is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home.
Tennessee is 2-12-1 ATS in its last 15 games at home.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee’s last 5 games when playing Buffalo.
Tennessee is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Buffalo.
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Buffalo.
Buffalo is 2-0 SU this season, when leading at the half. Tennessee is 1-0 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Interestingly, Buffalo is winless (0-2 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, yet undefeated (2-0 SU) when losing the turnover battle.
When it comes to passing this season, Tennessee is rated higher on both sides of the ball. Its 14th-ranked passing attack will face the 29th-ranked pass defense of Buffalo, while its sixth-ranked pass defense will look to limit the 22nd-ranked passing game of the Bills.
Tennessee has given up 35.0 points per game at home this year, which ranks it only 31st in the league. Buffalo has scored 41.0 points per contest on the road (ranked second overall).
