The game: Indianapolis at Houston (-5)
It’s certainly not one of the more storied rivalries we have in the NFL, but for the Houston Texans, no team has ruined more Sunday afternoons than the Indianapolis Colts. Now they get the chance to do it on a Thursday.
The History
It’s been a lopsided match-up to say the least. The Colts currently hold a 22-4 advantage over the Texans and a five-game winning streak going back to December, 2012.
In fact, the Texans couldn’t even take full advantage of the season that Peyton Manning had to sit out after his neck surgery, still losing their first match-up with the Curtis Painter-led Colts 19-16.
From the time that the Texans first entered the league in 2002, it took them nine tries to pick up their first win over the Colts, a 27-24 victory in 2006. It would take another four years to pick up the second.
Of the four quarterbacks that have started games for the Colts since 2002, the only one that hasn’t beaten the Texans (as a Colt) is Matt Hasselbeck. He’ll get his shot tonight.
The Colts on offense
Needless to say, Andrew Luck missing this game changes everything. Hasselbeck put up decent numbers in last Sunday’s overtime win over Jacksonville, completing 30-of-47 passes for 282 yards and a touchdown. Still, most of Hasselbeck’s completions were short stuff to tight end Coby Fleener and No. 3 wideout Donte Moncrief. Hasselbeck couldn’t get Andre Johnson involved in the offense at all. The biggest problem was on third down, with the Colts converting just 7-of-15 third downs in the game and if I’ve got to throw some math at you, that’s less than 47 percent. It’s a recipe for disaster.
The Texans on offense
Ryan Mallett has a tenuous grip on the Texans’ starting quarterback job, but he should be helped out by the continued improvement of Alfred Blue int he backfield and the return of Arian Foster. At wide receiver the Texans have one of the best young pass-catchers in the game in DeAndre Hopkins who is already on pace for a 124-catch, 1,636, 12 touchdown season and I would argue they still aren’t getting him the ball enough. Cecil Shorts III is a decent No. 2 receiver, but he’d likely be a No. 3 or No. 4 on another team. After Hopkins, the drop-off is steep and the Texans don’t have a receiving tight end even worth mentioning.
The Colts on defense
The cracks that showed up in last year’s AFC Championship game have turned into canyons this year. The only team Indianapolis held to less than 20 points this season is the Jaguars. Before that, their best game was a 20-7 loss to the New York Jets. Not exactly an offensive juggernaut. The Colts have allowed their opponents to game more total yards, and more average yards per play this season and opposing quarterbacks are completing 61.9 percent of their passes.
Indianapolis can’t put together a pass rush and Robert Mathis seems like a shell of the player he was just two years ago. The Colts have five sacks as a team, total. They also can’t force turnovers, with just three interceptions on the season and not a single fumble recovery in four games.
The Texans on defense
The unit that was supposed to be the strength of the team has looked very average in the first month of the season. Defensive end J.J. Watt has been his usual spectacular self, recording 24 tackles and four sacks to go with his four passes defended, but the rest of the team only has one sack. And that sack doesn’t even belong to Jadeveon Clowney, who should be breaking out this year after missing last season with an injury.
The Texans too have a problem forcing turnovers, with just two picks and not a single fumble recovery. They did manage to block a kick.
The pick: History and recent performance is not on their side, but I believe that J.J. Watt and the Houston defense will do enough to beat a Hasselbeck-led Colts team, but not the spread. Texans 16, Colts 13
