The South Alabama Jaguars (+25) will clash with the Appalachian State Mountaineers at Kidd Brewer Stadium. ESPN+ is scheduled to televise the action and the opening kickoff for this conference showdown is pegged for 3:30 p.m. ET.
South Alabama Jaguars vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers Betting Preview
South Alabama is the noticeable underdog here and is currently getting 25 points from bookmakers. The over/under for this matchup hasn’t yet been released. Should one team gets out in front early, it’ll probably generate a solid betting scenario in-game.
The opening line was originally set at -23, but has recently shifted.
The Jaguars have gained 0.0 units so far and are 2-1-1 against the spread (ATS). The team has posted an O/U record of 4-0. The Mountaineers are up 1.0 unit this season. The team is 3-0 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-0.
The Jaguars have gone 1-3 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Mountaineers are 2-1 SU overall and 0-0 SU in conference play.
These two SBC foes did not get a chance to play each other in 2017.
The Jaguars are trying to bounce back after a 52-35 loss to Memphis last week. The passing game was on point as Evan Orth completed 24 passes on 32 attempts for 360 yards and three touchdowns. Tra Minter (35 yards on 14 rush attempts, one TD) led the ground attack. Jamarius Way (10 receptions, 185 yards, one TD) and Kawaan Baker (four catches, 49 yards, one TD) handled the receiving duties in the defeat.
The Appalachian State Mountaineers just picked up a 72-7 win over Gardner-Webb. The team’s defense did its duty in the victory, holding the Runnin’ Bulldogs to just 126 passing yards and 34 yards on the ground. Jonathan Blackmon was a bright spot in the loss for Gardner-Webb, posting 57 yards on nine catches. As a group, the Mountaineers collectively completed 20-of-27 passes for 260 yards and two touchdowns. Zac Thomas went 11-for-15 for 185 yards and one touchdown while Peyton Derrick was seven-of-seven for 68 yards and one touchdown. D’Andre Hicks (150 yards on 11 rush attempts, one TD) and Camerun Peoples (53 yards on nine carries) mounted the running game as Dominique Heath (four receptions, 111 yards, two TDs) and Corey Sutton (four catches, 39 yards) led the receiving corps in the win.
South Alabama has run the ball on 54.0 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Appalachian State has a rush percentage of 59.7 percent. The Jaguars have produced 130 rush yards/game and have eight scores on the ground this year. The Mountaineers are totaling 243 rushing yards per game and have nine total rush TDs.
If 2018 results are any indication, then it appears the Mountaineers ought to have an advantage in terms of RB efficiency, as their backfield has produced 6.1 yards per carry while their defense has allowed a YPC of 2.9 to opponents. The Jaguars have tallied 3.6 yards per carry while allowing a YPC of 4.3 to opponents.
The Jags offensive scheme has logged 213 yards per game in the air overall and has seven passing TDs so far. The Mountaineers have put up 282 pass yards per outing and also have seven total pass scores.
South Alabama has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 206 yards and throw for 292 yards per game. The Appalachian State D has given up 154.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 111.3 yards per game on the ground. The Mountaineers are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 3.23 to opponents, while the Jaguars have allowed a 6.44 ANY/A.
Offensively, Orth is up to 523 passing yards this year, and has completed 42-of-63 attempts with four passing scores and one interception. Orth has a sparkling 8.01 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number sits at 10.69 over the last two outings.
As a group, Jamarius Way, Kawaan Baker and Tra Minter have collectively accounted for 550 yards from scrimmage and seven touchdowns over the last couple of outings.
Zac Thomas has completed 36-of-53 passes for 455 yards, three TDs and one INT for Appalachian State. His ANY/A stands at 7.68 for the year and 16.75 over his past two outings.
We expect the Mountaineers to control tempo by pounding the defense with their running backs. In addition to Corey Sutton (126 receiving yards this season), Jalin Moore (207 rush yards, three rush TDs) and D’Andre Hicks (150 rush yards, one rush TD) have been significant focal points in the Mountaineers’ recent offensive gameplans.
NCAA Pick: South Alabama Jaguars vs. Appalachian State Mountaineers
SU Winner – Appalachian State, ATS Winner – South Alabama
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Notes
Team Betting Trends
The South Alabama defensive unit has 11 sacks on the year while Appalachian State has six.
The Appalachian State offense has lost two fumbles this season while the South Alabama offense has let seven get away.
The Jaguars offense has registered three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Mountaineers have put up two such plays.
The South Alabama defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Appalachian State has given up one such play.
The South Alabama offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Appalachian State has created five such run.
The Jaguars defense has allowed seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Mountaineers have given up one such run.
Appalachian State was favored by 43 points in its previous game and the Over/Under was 56. The over cashed and Appalachian State covered in that 72-7 victory over Gardner-Webb.
In its last three matchups, Appalachian State is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three matches, South Alabama is 1-1-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
South Alabama was favored by 32 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 66. The over cashed and South Alabama failed to cover in the 52-35 loss to Memphis.
South Alabama has averaged 3.5 yards per carry over its last two contests.
Appalachian State has averaged 6.9 yards per carry over its last two.
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