The Cardinals (+6) are set to welcome their in-conference rival Florida State Seminoles (-6) to Louisville. This critical afternoon game is scheduled to get underway at 3:30 p.m. ET and ESPN2 has the TV rights.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals Betting Preview
In this Saturday Atlantic Coast matchup, Florida State is projected as the favorite and is currently giving up 6 points. The Seminoles are also receiving -240 moneyline odds while the Cardinals are +190. Should one program can create a bunch of points early, it’ll likely produce a nice betting opportunity in-game.
The line originally opened at 6 and has moved a bit recently.
The less-than-stellar Seminoles are 1-3 against the spread (ATS) and are down 4.0 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2. The Cardinals have lost 1.0 unit this season. The team is 0-4 ATS and has an O/U record of 1-3.
The Seminoles have gone 2-2 straight up (SU), including 0-2 SU against ACC opponents. The Cardinals are 2-2 SU overall and 0-1 SU in conference play.
The Noles are coming off a resounding 37-19 win over Northern Illinois last week. Deondre Francois completed 23-of-31 passes for 352 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Cam Akers (just 64 rushing yards on 22 attempts, one TD) and Jacques Patrick (56 yards on 16 carries) led the running attack in the win while Keith Gavin (six receptions, 93 yards) and Nyqwan Murray (five catches, 85 yards) manned the receiving duties.
Louisville just dropped a one-sided 27-3 game to Virginia. The team’s defense allowed the Cavaliers to eat up the clock by running for 204 yards on 39 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Jordan Ellis put up a good showing for Virginia, accounting for 68 rushing yards on 20 attempts. As a group, the Cards collectively completed 16-of-28 passes for 148 yards and two interceptions. Jawon Pass went 10-for-19 for 113 yards and one interception while Malik Cunningham was six-of-nine for 35 yards and one interception. Malik Cunningham (26 yards on 10 rush attempts) mounted the ground game in the defeat as Dez Fitzpatrick (five receptions, 62 yards) and Smith (three catches, 25 yards) led the receiving attack.
Florida State has run the ball on 48.8 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Louisville has a rush percentage of 54.4 percent. The Seminoles have run for 103 yards per game (including 78 per game against Atlantic Coast opponents) and have four touchdowns via handoffs this year. The Cards are totaling 121 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.
The Noles offense has tallied 271 yards per game through the air overall (206 per game against conference opposition) and has five passing TDs so far. The Cards have produced 163 pass yards per outing and have three total pass scores.
Defensively, Florida State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 98 yards and pass for 279 yards per game. The Louisville defense has allowed 197.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 192.0 yards per game on the ground. The Noles are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 5.99 to opposing QBs, while the Cards have given up a 7.02 ANY/A.
Offensively, Francois has put up 905 passing yards this season, and has completed 76-of-112 attempts with five passing scores and four interceptions. He has a 6.42 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.90 over the last two outings.
Keith Gavin (158 receiving yards on the year), Cam Akers (222 rush yards, one rush TD) and Nyqwan Murray (200 receiving yards) have each played key roles of late.
For the home team, Malik Cunningham has completed 12-of-16 passes for 110 yards, one TD and one INT. Cunningham’s ANY/A sits at a minuscule 3.89 for the season and 2.62 across his past two outings.
Expect Cunningham to distribute the football early and often in this one. Malik Cunningham (zero receiving yards), Dez Fitzpatrick (102 receiving yards), and Jaylen Smith (86 receiving yards, one TD) have collectively notched 147 receiving yards over the last couple of games.
When these two programs faced each other a year ago, Louisville knocked off Florida State by a field goal 31-28.
NCAA Pick: Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinals
SU Winner – Florida State, ATS Winner – Florida State
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Florida State defense has 10 sacks on the year while Louisville has six.
Louisville has lost two fumbles in 2018 while the Florida State offense has let six get away.
Both passing attacks have produced one pass play of 40 or more yards. The Seminoles have have made 10 pass plays of 30+ yards while the Cardinals have created four such plays.
The Florida State defense has allowed five pass plays of 40+ yards, while Louisville has given up two such plays.
Both teams have produced three rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Florida State offense has recorded 14 running plays of 10+ yards while Louisville has accounted for 26 such plays.
The Seminoles defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Cardinals have given up four such runs.
Louisville was favored by 5 points in its last outing and the O/U was 53.5. The under cashed and Louisville did not cover in that 27-3 defeat to Virginia.
In its last three matchups, Louisville is 0-3 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Over its last three contests, Florida State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Florida State was favored by 10 points in its last game and the O/U was set at 46. The over cashed and Florida State covered in the 37-19 win over Northern Illinois.
Florida State has averaged 2.75652173913043 yards per rush attempt across its last three outings and 2.3 over its last two.
Louisville has averaged 4.5 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.0 over its last two.
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