The Wildcats of Northwestern (+12.5) are gearing up to welcome the No. 14 Michigan Wolverines (-12.5) to Ryan Field. This conference game kicks off at 4:30 p.m. ET and FOX is scheduled to have the TV rights. These two conference adversaries did not get a chance to face one another a year ago.
Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big Ten game, Michigan is labeled as the big favorite and is currently giving up 12.5 points. The Wolverines are also receiving -525 moneyline odds while the Wildcats are +360. Should one squad can find paydirt early, it will probably generate a worthwhile live betting scenario.
This game’s line initially opened at 11 and early action has slanted toward the Wolverines.
The Wolverines are down 0.6 units so far and 2-2 against the spread (ATS). The team’s posted an O/U record of 2-2. The Wildcats have lost 0.6 units this season. The team is 1-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 2-1.
The Wolverines have gone 3-1 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Wildcats are 1-2 SU overall and 1-0 SU in conference play.
Michigan enters this matchup on a zero-game losing skid while Northwestern has won each of its last zero. The Wolverines are trying to keep things going following a solid 56-10 win over Nebraska last week. The passing game was sharp as the Wolverines completed 18-of-31 passes for 206 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Shea Patterson went 15-for-22 for 120 yards and one touchdown while Dylan McCaffrey completed three-of-eight for 86 yards and one touchdown. Karan Higdon (136 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Christian Turner (55 yards on 10 carries) led the ground attack while Grant Perry (four receptions, five yards) and Zach Gentry (three catches, 32 yards, one TD) manned the receiving duties in the win.
A couple of weeks ago, Akron took care of this Northwestern team by a score of 39-34. The Wildcats defensive secondary let the Zips air it out for 277 yards and two touchdowns. Kwadarrius Smith put up a good outing for Akron, accounting for 90 yards on six catches. As a group, the Wildcats collectively completed 37-of-58 passes for 405 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions. Clayton Thorson went 33-for-52 for 383 yards, three touchdowns and two interceptions while TJ Green was four-of-six for 22 yards. Jeremy Larkin (82 rushing yards on 22 attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the running game as Cameron Green (11 receptions, 125 yards, two TDs) and Larkin (eight catches, 52 yards) led the receiving corps in the loss.
Michigan has run the ball on 59.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Northwestern has a rush percentage of 42.1 percent. The Wolverines have produced 212 rush yards per game and have 10 scores on the ground this year. The Wildcats are logging 117 rushing yards per game and have seven total rush TDs.
Judging by the early season results, it seems like the Wolverines should hold an advantage in all aspects of the ground game. Their backfield has logged 5.5 yards per carry while the defense is allowing a YPC of 2.7 to opponents. The Wildcats have tallied 3.2 yards per carry and allowed a YPC of 3.9 to opponents.
The Wolverines offensive scheme has averaged 209 yards through the air overall and has nine passing scores so far. The Wildcats have recorded 307 pass yards per outing and have three total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Michigan should have the upper hand in both facets. The team has allowed 101 rush yards and 139 pass yards per game. The Northwestern D has given up 250.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 129.7 yards per game to opposing runners. The Wolverines are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 3.09 to opponents, while the Wildcats have allowed a 6.84 ANY/A.
Offensively, Patterson has put up 472 passing yards on the year. He’s completed 47-of-69 attempts with four passing scores and one interception. Patterson has a 6.08 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.10 over the last two outings.
We’re looking for Wolverines to maintain the pace by pounding the defense with their running backs. Along with Zach Gentry (53 yards, one TD), Karan Higdon (364 rush yards, three rush TDs) and Tru Wilson (97 rush yards) have been focal points in the offensive game scripts for Michigan.
Clayton Thorson has connected on 49-of-78 passes for 555 yards, three TDs and two INTs for Northwestern. His ANY/A stands at 6.41 for the season and 5.00 over his past two games.
The Wildcats also like to keep their RBs involved. In addition to Jeremy Larkin (72 receiving yards), Flynn Nagel (zero rush yards, 93 receiving yards) and Cameron Green (-4 rush yards, 175 receiving yards, two TDs) have seen a lot of action lately.
NCAA Tip: Michigan Wolverines at Northwestern Wildcats
SU Winner – Michigan, ATS Winner – Michigan
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Michigan defense has twice as many sacks as Northwestern this year (10 to five).
Each team has lost one fumble this year.
The Wolverines offense has recorded four pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Wildcats have put up two such plays.
The Michigan defense has allowed two pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Northwestern has given up four such plays.
The Michigan offense has created nine rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Northwestern has created three such runs.
Both teams have allowed four rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Wolverines have given up 22 running plays of 10+ yards while the Wildcats have given up 10 such plays.
Northwestern was favored by 21 points in its last match and the O/U was 47.5. The over cashed and Northwestern failed to cover in the team’s 39-34 loss to Akron.
Over its last three contests, Northwestern is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Over its last three games, Michigan is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Michigan was favored by 18 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 53.5. The over cashed and Michigan covered in the 56-10 win over Nebraska.
As a team, Michigan has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last two games.
Northwestern has averaged 2.7 yards per carry over its last two.
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