Dallas Keuchel (21-8, 2.42 ERA) and the Houston Astros take on Edinson Volquez (13-9, 3.55 ERA) and the Kansas City Royals in Game 3 of the Divisional Playoffs at Minute Maid Park. The Royals won the last game 5-4, and the series is currently tied 1-1. Action begins at 4:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Oct. 11 and can be seen on MLBN.
Keuchel pitched 6.0 innings in Game 1 of the Wild Card Elimination Game, surrendering zero runs, striking out seven and walking one in a 3-0 win over the Yankees. Colby Rasmus (.243, 70 Rs, 28 HRs, 66 RBIs, 3 SBs) had another good game Friday, going 2 for 3 with one run, one home run, and two RBIs. Volquez went 2.0 innings, surrendering zero runs, striking out three and walking two in a 6-1 win over the Twins in his most recent start. Kendrys Morales (.291, 83 Rs, 24 HRs, 108 RBIs) went 1 for 4 Friday.
This one isn’t expected to be close when Houston, a substantial -180 favorite, takes on Kansas City. According to the oddsmakers, the Over/Under (O/U) is currently seven runs. The Astros have an overall money line of -295 and a record as the favorite of 56-45. The Astros have seen an uptick in scoring as of late, averaging 6.4 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.5 runs per game. The Astros lead the MLB in home runs with 235. Houston is one of the best in the MLB in terms of steals, swiping 124 bases. Crossing over to the pitching staff, opposing offenses that come to Minute Maid Park have been stifled by the Astros, who have a team ERA of only 3.17 at home. The Astros are the fifth-best team in the league at limiting hits and walks to their opponents, recording a WHIP of 1.198 so far this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Kansas City has a 37-30 record and an overall money line of +1,904. The Royals are an excellent base stealing team with 106 stolen bases, ranking fifth in the MLB. When it comes to preventing batters from getting hits, the Royals are fifth in the AL on the road with an average of 8.5 hits allowed per away game.
The Astros lead the season series, 5-3. The Astros have a 55-47 record against right-handed starting pitchers on the year, which is what they’ll be facing when Volquez takes the mound. Keuchel (LHP) will be on the hill against the Royals, who have a 31-26 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – HOU, O/U – Over
Notes
Houston has won 59% (42-29) of its games when leading after seven innings. However, Kansas City has won 64% (41-23) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Royals managed to give up four walks in their last game. They’ll have to pick it up against the Astros who are heading in with a 42-23 record against opponents who give up that many walks or more.
When they outhit their opponents, the Astros are 66-18. The Royals have a 76-8 record when outhitting opponents.
Ranking seventh, Kansas City sits in the top 10 of the league in runs, scoring 731 this season. Houston ranks in the top five at fifth with 741.
Ranking 28th, Kansas City is near the bottom of the league in walks, notching 387 this season. Houston ranks in the top 10 at ninth with 498.
The Astros are 75-47 when they hit at least one home run. The Royals perform similarly when they hit one or more homers with a 65-32 record.
