The 2018-’19 NBA season is upon us. Some starting rosters are set in stone while questions linger around others. One thing that many bettors are doing is trying to figure out their betting strategies for the season — Who to bet on to win the championship? Are there any strong trends for betting totals? How many games each team win during the regular season? These are all questions that are being bandied about and we are here to help you answer some of those by looking at the top contenders to win the NBA Championship this year.
Understanding The NBA Betting Odds
In a nutshell, betting odds allow you to calculate the amount of money that you stand to win on a correct prediction. Some people may argue that betting odds represent the actual chances of a certain outcome, but that isn’t necessarily true because bookmakers add vigorish and the betting odds can change depending on how much money is placed on an outcome. There are plenty of different ways in which to bet on NBA basketball but the three main wager types are moneylines, spreads, and game totals.
Moneylines: NBA moneyline bets can only result in one of two things: A win or a loss. This is because there are no ties in basketball. Reading moneylines and trying to figure out a potential payout might look a little confusing but it is really quite simple. For starters, when you see that a team’s moneyline has a “-” sign beside it then that means that they are favorites. A “+” sign means that the team is an underdog.
Moneylines Explained
The formula for figuring out moneylines is straightforward. For favorites, the formula is Profit = Stake/(Odds/100). So, if you were to bet $15 on the Houston Rockets and they are listed as -150 favorites, you first divide the odds (150) by 100. In this case, the result is 1.5 which you divide into your wager amount of $15 giving you a profit of $10. To calculate the total payout you only need to add the original stake amount of $15 and you get a total payout of $25.
To calculate how much you would win on a “plus money bet” you would apply the following formula: Profit = Stake x (Odds/100). To figure out how much you would win on a +180 underdog with a $30 bet you would start by dividing 180 by 100 which gives you 1.8 which you then multiply by your wager amount of $30 to give you a potential gain of $54. Add on the original $30 bet and your total payout becomes $84.
Another way to think about “minus” and “plus” numbers is that a minus number represents the amount of money that you need to bet in order to win $100 while a plus number represents the amount that you stand to win if you bet $100. Don’t fret if you are not good with math. Fortunately, online bookmakers do all the calculations for you as you fill in your bet slips.
Spread Betting: A spread bet is almost like a moneyline bet, except that there is a win/loss margin. Let’s say that you bet on the Los Angeles Lakers at -6 over the Los Angeles Clippers who are listed at +6. This means that the Lakers would not only have to be victorious but they would have to win by at least seven points for you to win your bet. If they win by six it would be a push and if they win by less than six then you would lose. Conversely, if you bet the Clippers at +6 you would win as long as they don’t lose by any more than five points. You would win if they win outright and you would push if they lose by exactly six points. A loss of more than six points would result in a losing bet.
Game Totals: Game totals are very easy to understand. With these, bettors are betting that the combined scores of both teams either fall short of or exceeds the posted total. Let’s say that the Oklahoma Thunder and the Utah Jazz have a posted total of 203 and you bet the over. If their combined scores add up to 204 or more, then you win. If the combined score is 202 or less, then you lose. It’s a push if the combined score falls on the total of 203.
NBA Betting Strategies
There are no sure-fire ways to win when you bet on the NBA. After all, bookmakers would go out of business if there were. However, there are definitely ways to help you maximize your chances of winning in the long run.
Watch For Trends: Like most sports, certain trends emerge and spotting them early can help give your bankroll a boost. You might notice that the Sacramento Kings cover a lot of spreads when they are road dogs. Maybe you discover that the majority of Bulls home games go over the total. Whatever the pattern may be, riding trends can make you money.
Don’t Bet Against Streaks: Good teams sometimes go through cold spells just as bad teams occasionally get hot. Think of this not only in terms of straight up wins and losses, but also look at how they have performed against the spread and with totals. When you see that a team is on a streak of any kind it is wise to not bet against that streak. If a team has been covering a lot then don’t fade them. If a team has been involved in a bunch of overs recently then don’t just assume that they are “due” for an under.
Consider Whether a Team is playing At Home or on the Road: Home court advantage is a significant factor in NBA basketball. In 2017-18, only the Boston Celtics and the Phoenix Suns had better road records than home records, while the Warriors and Pelicans got the same number of wins at home and on the road. In the vast majority of cases, teams did much better at home. It’s not just wins/losses either. Teams perform differently against the spread too. Last year, Philadelphia and San Antonio were much better at covering at home than on the road while it was the opposite for Phoenix and Miami. Cleveland was terrible at covering when they were favored while Brooklyn was solid at covering as an underdog. Keep an eye on these things.
Pay Attention To Key Injuries: Oddsmakers aren’t dumb. They factor in key injuries when they determine lines so you need to be on top of key injuries as well. You might come across a line that looks suspiciously low but you can be sure that there is a good reason for that.
Shop Around for the Best Odds: Making a profit betting on the NBA can be a grind and it is important to take advantage of any edge you can find. While lines don’t usually differ all that much between sportsbooks, you can almost always find differences. One sportsbook might have the Detroit Pistons listed as a -110 favorite while another lists them at -105. You will come out ahead in the long run if you take them at -105. Shop around for the best price because every nickel counts if you want to be successful. It’s a very fine line between being profitable and losing money.
NBA Title Contenders
Golden State Warriors (-195)
There isn’t really too much that can be said about this team that isn’t already obvious. Three championships in the last four years and a starting lineup that features Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant and Draymond Green. Throw in their new addition, DeMarcus Cousins, and it looks like Golden State is destined to make a run for its fourth title in five years. They arguably have the strongest bench in the league and their core is very experienced without being past their prime.
The oddsmakers peg the Warriors to win 62.5 games this season which would be an improvement on last year’s 58 wins.
Boston Celtics (+500)
Despite losing Gordon Hayward at the beginning of the season and then Kyrie Irving a couple of months later, the Boston Celtics still managed to put together a very solid 2017-’18 season thanks in part to breakout years from Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown along with a great effort from veteran center Al Horford. It certainly appears as though the Celtics will be the class of the Eastern Conference this season as they boast a loaded starting lineup and a very strong bench.
After going 55-27 straight up and 50-30-2 ATS in 2017, a healthy Boston Celtics squad is expected to be even better this year. Oddsmakers have set their season win total at 58.5 and that number is certainly attainable if these guys can play as a unit. There are a lot of mouths to feed but if they can work together then they have the potential to win at least 60.
Houston Rockets (+850)
The Houston Rockets were beyond scary in 2017 posting a league-best 65-17 record. Unfortunately for Rockets fans, an untimely injury to veteran Chris Paul took its toll and the Rockets fell to the Warriors in the seventh game of the Western Conference Finals. While Golden State still looks like the team to beat, a lot is expected out of the Rockets. However, don’t expect a repeat of last season. Oddsmakers have set their season win total at 55.5 which is significantly lower than the 65 wins they put up last year.
Los Angeles Lakers (+1000)
Things are definitely looking up for a Lakers team that hasn’t been all that relevant for at least five years. A 35-47 record was good enough to give them a third-place finish in the Pacific Division and their 43-39 ATS record essentially paid the vig for their spread backers. It will be a lot different this year now that some guy named LeBron James has entered the picture. In fact, the makeup of the starting five has gone through a huge transformation and now features some great young talent including 2nd-Team All-Rookie Lonzo Ball and a 1st-Team-All-Rookie Kyle Kuzma. Throw in 21-year-old Brandon Ingram and Ivica Zubac and Los Angeles has assembled a team that will look great … in a couple of years.
Toronto Raptors (+1400)
The Toronto Raptors had a great 2017-’18 season finishing a franchise-best 59-23 to lead the Eastern Conference before getting swept by the Cavaliers in the conference semifinals. Their 43-38-1 ATS record was nothing to write home about though. Going into this season, the Raptors are still comprised of experienced and highly-talented veterans but the big off-season story has been the departure of DeMar DeRozan and the addition of Kahwi Leonard.
Philadelphia 76ers (+1600)
Does the Atlantic Division look like it’s going to be an entertaining one to watch this year? It sure does. The Philadelphia 76ers are coming off their first winning season since 2012 and they did it in style finishing third in the Atlantic Division with a 52-30 record before getting bounced by the Celtics in the Conference Semifinals. Nothing has really changed as far as their starting five is concerned as it will still consist of Rookie of the Year Ben Simmons, All-Stars Robert Covington, and Joel Embiid, as well as Dario Saric and veteran J.J Reddick. 20-year-old Markelle Fultz was snagged by the Sixers first overall in the 2017 Draft but injuries and the supposed “yips” made his rookie season a disappointing one. If he can deal with his issues then he will only add to the overall strength of his team.