The Northwestern Wildcats (+12) will meet their Big 10 foe No. 20 Michigan State Spartans (-12) at Spartan Stadium. FS1 owns the TV rights and the game is scheduled for 12:00 p.m. ET.
Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans Betting Preview
This Saturday Big 10 game shows the Wildcats as a significant underdogs and they’re currently receiving 12 points. The Wildcats are also receiving +340 moneyline odds while the Spartans are -475. There might be some decent live betting scenarios while the game’s underway, and Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) at 48 points.
Early action has moved toward the Spartans, as the opening line was -11. The game’s O/U has not moved after being initially set at 48.
The Wildcats are 2-2 against the spread (ATS) and are down 1.6 units so far. The team has posted an O/U record of 2-2. The Spartans are down 1.0 unit for moneyline bettors this season. They’re 1-3 ATS and own an O/U record of 3-1.
The Wildcats are a lousy 1-3 straight up (SU), including 1-1 SU against conference opponents. The Spartans are 3-1 SU overall and are also 1-0 SU in conference play.
Michigan State comes into this matchup on a three-game losing streak while Northwestern has won its last two in a row. The Wildcats came up short to Michigan 20-17 in a nailbiter where their defense allowed the Wolverines to eat up the clock by rushing for 180 yards on 42 attempts, including two rush TDs. Karan Higdon had a productive day for the Wolverines in that one with 115 rushing yards and both touchdowns on 30 attempts. On the offense, Clayton Thorson completed 16-of-27 passes for only 174 yards. The Wildcats rushed for just 28 yards as a team in the defeat.
Michigan State enters this one having just earned a 31-20 win over Central Michigan. The team’s defense held its ground in the victory, limiting the Chippewas to only 182 passing yards and 63 rushing yards. Brandon Childress was a bright spot in the defeat, recording 46 yards on three catches for Central Michigan. For Michigan State, Brian Lewerke completed 16-of-25 passes for 185 yards and one interception. Connor Heyward did it all in the win. Along with 48 yards on 15 rush attempts (and one TD), Heyward also reeled in four catches for 16 yards.
Northwestern has run the ball on 44.4 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Michigan State has an overall rush percentage of 55.9 percent. The Wildcats have run for 95 yards/game (including 97 per game against Big Ten opponents) and have nine scores via handoffs this year. The Spartans are logging 130 rushing yards per game and have eight total rush TDs.
It appears that the Spartans should hold an edge in all aspects of the ground game, since their running backs has logged 3.3 yards per carry while their defense is allowing a YPC of 1.5 to opponents. The Wildcats have recorded 2.6 yards per carry while allowing 4.0 YPC to opponents.
The Wildcats offense has logged 274 yards/contest in the air overall (205 per game versus conference opposition) and has three passing scores so far. The Spartans have produced 251 pass yards per contest and have five total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Northwestern seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 142 rush yards and 237 pass yards per game. The Michigan State defense has given up 288.3 yards per game to opposing passers and 40.3 yards per game on the ground. The Spartans are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 4.72 to opposing QBs, while the Wildcats have given up a 7.01 ANY/A.
Offensively, Thorson has put up 544 passing yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 59 percent of his 91 attempts with zero passing scores and one interception. He’s got a 4.37 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.43 over the last two outings.
For the home team, Brian Lewerke has managed to complete 66-of-97 passes for 786 yards, three TDs and three INTs. Lewerke’s ANY/A stands at 6.51 for the year and 4.89 over his past two games.
These two teams met last year with the final result being a 39-31 win for Northwestern.
RELATED: Week 6 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
NCAA Prediction: Northwestern Wildcats vs. Michigan State Spartans
SU Winner – Michigan State, ATS Winner – Michigan State, O/U – Over
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Notes
Betting Notes
The Wildcats offense has registered two pass plays of 40 yards or more, while the Spartans have accounted for one such play.
The Northwestern defense has allowed four pass plays of 40 or more yards, while Michigan State has given up one such play.
Both teams have produced three rushing plays of 20+ yards. The Northwestern offense has recorded seven running plays of 10+ yards while Michigan State has accounted for 12 such plays.
The Wildcats defense has allowed six rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Spartans have given up zero such runs.
The Michigan State defensive unit has recorded 11 sacks on the year while Northwestern has six.
Northwestern has produced 2.08823529411765 yards per carry over its last three games and 1.6 over its last two.
Michigan State has averaged 3.1 yards per carry over its last three outings and 3.3 over its past two.
Over its last three games, Michigan State is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
Northwestern was getting 15 points in its previous game and the O/U was set at 46.5. The under cashed and Northwestern covered in the 20-17 defeat to Michigan.
In its last three games, Northwestern is 1-2 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
Michigan State was favored by 28 points in its previous matchup and the O/U was set at 45.5. The over cashed and Michigan State failed to cover in the 31-20 triumph over Central Michigan.
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