The SMU Mustangs (+24) are traveling east to battle the No. 12 UCF Knights at Spectrum Stadium. Kickoff for this AAC showdown is set for 7:00 p.m. ET and ESPNU is scheduled to televise the action.
SMU Mustangs at UCF Knights Betting Preview
UCF has been tabbed as heavily favored in this matchup and is currently giving up 24 points to SMU. Vegas has set the over/under (O/U) pretty highly at 71 points. If one team can find paydirt early, it’ll likely result in a nice live betting opportunity.
With the spread opening at -25 and the total set originally at 71.5, oddsmakers have shifted this game’s outlook a bit.
Both of these teams have rewarded gamblers this year as the Mustangs have gained 1.1 units and the Knights are up 2.0 units.
The Mustangs have gone 2-3 straight up (SU), including 1-0 SU against conference opponents. The Knights are 4-0 SU overall and are also 1-0 SU in conference play.
When these two programs faced one another a year ago, UCF knocked off SMU by a touchdown 31-24.
The Mustangs are coming off a resounding 63-27 victory over Houston Baptist last week. the Mustangs completed 24-of-37 passes for 409 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. William Brown went 12-for-20 for 309 yards, two touchdowns and one interception while Ben Hicks completed eight-of-12 for 61 yards and one touchdown. Braeden West (69 yards on 12 rush attempts, two TDs) and Merek Pierce (56 yards on nine carries) led the ground attack while Reggie Roberson, Jr. (four receptions, 104 yards) and West (three catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.
UCF is coming off of a 45-14 win over Pittsburgh. The team’s defense let the Panthers rush for 109 yards on 33 attempts. Maurice Ffrench had a productive showing in the defeat, posting 78 yards on three catches for Pittsburgh. For UCF, McKenzie Milton completed 18-of-34 passes for 328 yards and four touchdowns. Adrian Killins Jr. (40 rushing yards on 12 attempts) and the signal-caller Milton (51 yards on 10 carries, two TDs) led the running game as Otis Anderson (four receptions, 29 yards, one TD) and Gabriel Davis (four catches, 80 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching corps in the win.
SMU has run the ball on 50.6 percent of its offensive possessions this year while UCF has an overall rush percentage of 55.5 percent. The Mustangs have produced 129 rush yards per game and have seven scores on the ground this year. The Knights are putting up 273 rush yards per game and have 13 total rushing TDs.
It seems like the Knights should hold an edge along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has given up just two sacks while their D-line has registered seven sacks. The Mustangs O-line has given up 12 sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss just eight times.
The Mustangs offense has logged 229 yards/contest through the air overall and has 12 passing scores so far. The Knights have recorded 310 pass yards per outing and have 13 total pass TDs.
Defensively, SMU has allowed opponents to rush for an average of 183 yards and pass for 224 yards per game. The UCF D has given up 159.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 206.5 yards per game to opposing runners. The Knights are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 2.52 to opposing QBs, while the Mustangs have allowed a 7.04 ANY/A.
Offensively, Brown has amassed 391 passing yards on the year, and has connected on 62 percent of his 37 attempts with four passing scores and one interception. He has a sparkling 10.97 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 9.45 over the last two outings.
In the hosts’ locker room, McKenzie Milton has completed 63-of-105 passes for 917 yards, 10 TDs and three INTs. Milton’s ANY/A stands at 9.22 for the year and 11.24 over his last two games.
RELATED: Week 6 College Football Betting Odds and Predictions
Free Prediction: SMU Mustangs at UCF Knights
SU Winner – UCF, ATS Winner – SMU, O/U – Under
Click Here to Start Betting Today!
Notes
Team Betting Trends
The UCF offense has lost zero fumbles this season while SMU has lost three.
The SMU D has eight sacks on the year while UCF has seven.
SMU has averaged 4.33898305084746 yards per carry across its last three games and 4.6 over its last two.
UCF has averaged 5.6 yards per carry over its last three outings and 5.0 over its last two.
In its last three contests, UCF is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.
SMU was favored by 45 points in its previous game and the Over/Under going into it was 69.5. The over cashed and SMU failed to cover in the 63-27 win over Houston Baptist.
In its last three contests, SMU is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.
UCF was favored by 14 points in its previous matchup and the Over/Under was set at 65.5. The under cashed and UCF covered in the 45-14 win over Pittsburgh.
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